סקר המנדטים האחרון של חדשות 12 לפני הבחירות: גוש השינוי מתחזק, וינטר והנדל-זליכה מתחת לאחוז החסימה

The final Knesset election poll by Channel 12 News, released on October 26, 2026, indicates a strengthening of the "change bloc" and places Gadi Eisenkot's Yishar party as the largest with 23 mandates. The Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, gains two mandates to reach 21. Naftali Bennett's Yamina party remains stable with 15 mandates, Yair Golan's Democrats gain one to 10, and the Joint List, led by Yosef Jabareen, holds steady at 9 mandates.

Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu both secure 8 mandates. Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit also gains mandates to reach 8. United Torah Judaism, led by Yaakov Asher, receives 7 mandates, and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and Identity party gets 6. Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party rounds out the Knesset with 5 mandates.

Crucially, Ofer Winter's Am Israel party and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economic party fall below the electoral threshold. Am Israel garners 2.5% of the vote, while Hendel's party receives 2.4%. Moti Leitner's Haredi Public party and Avi Maoz's Noam for Israel party also remain outside the Knesset with 0.5% each.

The poll shows the anti-Netanyahu bloc consolidating its strength, rising to 70 mandates. This bloc comprises 56 mandates from the Zionist "change bloc" parties and 14 from Arab parties. The pro-Netanyahu coalition is projected to have 50 mandates, with a "third bloc" falling below the threshold.

In a head-to-head comparison for prime minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by 44% to 38%, a narrowing of the gap from 11% in the previous poll. When comparing Bennett and Netanyahu, they are tied at 39% each, a shift from Bennett's previous lead. Netanyahu also leads Lieberman 40% to 28%.

More respondents prefer a "change government" (46%) over a Netanyahu bloc government (32%), with 15% favoring a unity government. Among "change bloc" voters, 60% would prefer a minority government if a 61-mandate coalition cannot be formed, while 20% would prefer new elections.

Overall, 53% of respondents are optimistic about the election results, compared to 26% who are pessimistic. The economy and cost of living are cited as the most influential issues for voters (21%), followed by the draft law and burden sharing (17%), and the failures of October 7th (14%).