הנתון שיכריע את הבחירות והתוכנית הסודית ליום שאחרי

The upcoming 2026 elections are shaping up to be a complex contest, with neither the "Change Bloc" nor Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc expected to secure the 61 mandates needed to form a government. The first round, until polls close, favors the Change Bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, due to its organized structure. However, the second round, beginning at 10 PM on election night, will be a different game, with both sides employing different strategies.

The Change Bloc, under Eisenkot, has consolidated effectively with four parties, two surplus agreements, and no party near the electoral threshold. Benny Gantz has even withdrawn, consolidating votes for the bloc. In contrast, Netanyahu has spent the final days of the campaign attempting to unite his fragmented bloc, meeting with rabbis and advisors to persuade smaller parties to withdraw, without success. He has also resorted to public attacks, such as a video with Minister Eli Cohen criticizing Yaron Zelicha's stance on the gas outline.

Turnout is expected to be a decisive factor. A poll by Manu Geva indicates higher voting intention in the Change Bloc (82%) compared to Netanyahu's bloc (76%). Significant challenges await Netanyahu in key demographics: the ultra-Orthodox, the Arab community, and "Likud cities." In the ultra-Orthodox sector, the question is whether voters will support competing parties or stay home, with a drop below 80% turnout being significant. In the Arab community, turnout is projected to be around 62%, a notable increase from 2022, driven by frustration over crime. While high Arab turnout could block Netanyahu, it might also make it harder for the Change Bloc to reach 61 mandates, even with Ra'am.

In "Likud cities," turnout in 2022 was around 63.6% in Dimona and 61.3% in Be'er Sheva, contributing to the Likud's gains. The urgency for Likud voters to turn out remains to be seen.

After polls close, the post-election maneuvering begins. Avigdor Lieberman predicts a potential attack on Iran in early November, immediately after the US midterm elections, which he believes Netanyahu and Trump would exploit to force unity. The primary challenge for Netanyahu, beyond the 7/10 failure, is a lack of trust from potential partners, with Aryeh Deri's offer of guarantees for promises being met with skepticism. There are even discussions within Netanyahu's circle about creative, aggressive, and cunning tactics to form a government without winning the election.

Netanyahu's advantage lies in his bloc's internal cohesion, contrasting with the Change Bloc's potential rivalries. Naftali Bennett and Lieberman together are polling at 23 mandates, with Bennett consistently gaining. While not currently coordinated, both harbor ambitions for the premiership. Yair Golan is a key figure; his decision to endorse Eisenkot or negotiate a higher price could influence the outcome. Internal struggles within the Change Bloc could cost them the chance to be the first to receive the mandate to form a government. Bennett's recent statement about repealing judicial overhaul laws is seen as an attempt to draw votes from Eisenkot, a move welcomed by Golan, though Bennett later clarified his intentions for measured judicial reform.

Ultimately, the election is expected to be decided by narrow margins, influenced by non-voters, parties near the threshold, and post-election coalition-building efforts.