הנתון שיכריע את הבחירות והתוכנית הסודית ליום שאחרי

The upcoming 2026 elections are shaping up to be a complex contest, with neither the "Change Bloc" nor Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc expected to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government. The first round, until polls close, favors the Change Bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, due to its organized structure. However, the second round, beginning at 10 PM on election night, will be a different game entirely, with both sides determined to win.

The Change Bloc, under Eisenkot, has consolidated effectively with four parties, two surplus agreements, and no party near the electoral threshold. Benny Gantz has even withdrawn, consolidating votes for the bloc. In contrast, Netanyahu is struggling to unite his own bloc, engaging in last-minute negotiations with various factions and figures, including rabbis and advisors, to persuade them to withdraw or merge, so far without success. He has also publicly criticized Yaron Zelicha over the gas outline.

Turnout is expected to be a decisive factor. Polls suggest higher intent to vote among the Change Bloc (82%) compared to Netanyahu's bloc (76%). Significant challenges await Netanyahu in mobilizing voters among the Haredi community, the Arab sector, and Likud strongholds. A potential drop in Haredi voter turnout below 80% could be significant. In the Arab sector, turnout is projected to be around 62%, a notable increase from 2022, which could hinder Netanyahu's chances but also make it harder for the Change Bloc to reach 61 seats, even with Ra'am.

In Likud cities, turnout in previous elections has been crucial. Netanyahu's bloc achieved a majority in 2022 after increased turnout in cities like Dimona and Be'er Sheva. The urgency for Likud voters to turn out will be a key question.

After polls close, the situation becomes more fluid. Avigdor Lieberman speculates that an attack on Iran might occur shortly after the elections, potentially used by Netanyahu and Donald Trump to force national unity. Netanyahu's primary challenge, beyond the 7/10 failures, is a lack of trust from potential partners, making coalition building difficult. Creative, audacious, and aggressive tactics, possibly even trickery, may be needed for him to form a government without a clear electoral victory.

Despite internal rivalries within the Change Bloc, such as potential challenges to Eisenkot's leadership by Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, their focus remains on achieving 61 seats. Bennett's recent statement about revoking judicial overhaul laws is seen as a move to attract votes from Eisenkot's base. Yair Golan has welcomed Bennett's stance, indicating potential alignment. The article concludes that the elections will be decided by narrow margins, focusing on voter turnout, parties near the threshold, and post-election maneuvering to form a government.