Voter Turnout in Key Demographics Could Decide Israeli Election Outcome
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
Political commentator Amit Segal analyzed key voter demographics ahead of the Israeli Knesset elections, suggesting turnout shifts could determine the outcome. He noted stable secular turnout, a recent rise among Likud voters boosted by lost votes from threshold-failing parties, and potential decline in Haredi participation due to new factors. Segal highlighted the Arab sector as a major unknown with potential for increased turnout, which could significantly impact Arab parties' seat count.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Voter turnout among secular, Likud, Haredi, and Arab citizens could significantly impact Israeli election results.
- Secular voter turnout is stable, while Likud saw a 5% rise in the last election.
- Haredi turnout surged 8% in 2022, but may decrease due to apathy and new parties.
- The Arab sector is a key unknown, with potential for increased turnout and more seats for Arab parties.
- The current two percent gap between blocs is less favorable for the 'Izankot bloc', according to Segal.
With two days remaining until the Knesset elections, political commentator Amit Segal presented an analysis of voter turnout among four key demographic groups in Israel: secular, Likud voters, Haredi (ultra-Orthodox), and Arab citizens. Segal suggested that shifts in participation rates within these groups could significantly impact the distribution of Knesset seats between the political blocs.
For secular voters, largely aligned with the center-left bloc, turnout has remained relatively stable over the past five election cycles, with a slight decrease of about one percent in the 2022 elections compared to the previous one. Segal estimated that secular turnout is unlikely to drop but questioned the potential for a substantial increase.
Among Likud voters, turnout saw a roughly 5% increase in the last election compared to 2021. Segal attributed this rise not only to party mobilization but also to votes lost by parties failing to pass the electoral threshold, estimating Likud's strength would have been around 28 seats without these lost votes, despite their actual gain of 32 seats.
In the Haredi sector, turnout surged by approximately 8% in the 2022 elections, surprising pollsters and contributing to Shas and United Torah Judaism securing 18 seats combined. However, Segal indicated that this time might be different, citing potential apathy, anger towards Haredi parties, and the emergence of new smaller parties as factors that could lead to a decline in Haredi voter participation.
The Arab sector remains the biggest unknown, according to Segal. While the previous election saw a 7% increase in Arab voter turnout, it did not translate into more seats, partly due to around 120,000 votes going to a party that did not pass the threshold. Segal believes there is significant potential for increased Arab voter turnout, which could boost Arab parties' strength to approximately 16 seats.
Segal concluded that in the last elections, turnout rates were similar for both major blocs. His latest poll indicates a current gap of only about two percent between the blocs, a situation he described as less favorable for the 'Izankot bloc' than previously.
