Arab Vote Turnout Could Be Decisive in Israeli Elections, Expert Says
Translated & summarized from Arutz Sheva by baba
Professor Avi Diskin predicts that increased Arab voter turnout could be a decisive factor in the upcoming Israeli elections, potentially raising the electoral threshold and impacting small right-wing parties. He also suggests a "realistic chance" for a coalition between Netanyahu's Likud and Gadi Eisenkot's party, a scenario he calls the "fourth, unspoken possibility." Diskin emphasizes that voter participation and surplus agreements will be the key determinants in what he describes as a close election.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Increased Arab voter turnout may decisively impact Israeli election results, according to Professor Avi Diskin.
- Higher Arab participation could raise the electoral threshold, harming small right-wing parties.
- Diskin suggests a potential coalition between Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot's parties.
- Voter turnout and surplus agreements are identified as the key decisive factors.
- The Netanyahu trial and related testimonies may influence voter turnout.
Professor Avi Diskin, a political science and election systems expert, believes a significant increase in voter turnout among Arab citizens could decisively impact the upcoming Knesset elections and influence the formation of the next government. Diskin told Channel 7 that there is a clear "significant awakening" in the Arab community towards higher participation than in the past, which will affect the results. He noted that while Arab voter turnout is expected to be lower than Jewish turnout, the "emotional involvement" and "polarization" within Israeli society are likely to drive more Arab citizens to vote, especially in closely contested elections.
Diskin also pointed to efforts by Arab parties to prevent vote wastage through surplus agreements. He stated that "all the data indicates a larger Arab voter turnout." This higher turnout is expected to raise the electoral threshold, potentially eliminating small right-wing parties that are hovering around the threshold. He also mentioned that one of these parties lacks a surplus agreement, which will further impact the results.
Despite these factors, Diskin did not rule out a scenario where Netanyahu's bloc secures a 61-seat majority. However, he sees a "realistic chance" for cooperation between the two largest parties, Likud and Gadi Eisenkot's party, due to political circumstances that may arise after the elections. Diskin recalled that Netanyahu has a history of cooperating with centrist and left-wing parties, and such partnerships have occurred before.
He outlined three commonly discussed election scenarios: a victory for Netanyahu's bloc, a complex victory for the anti-Netanyahu bloc struggling to form a government with Liberman, Bennett, and Arab parties, or a repeat election. Diskin highlighted a "fourth, unspoken possibility": the dissolution of blocs and a partnership between the two largest parties. He suggested that as the power of Arab parties grows, the likelihood of Netanyahu and Eisenkot choosing this fourth option will increase.
Diskin concluded that the election is "neck and neck," with voter participation and surplus agreements being the "decisive factors." He added that various regional and internal issues, including the ongoing Netanyahu trial and related testimonies, are expected to influence voter turnout, despite media attempts to downplay court proceedings.
