Israeli Election Polls Show Divided Public, No Clear Majority
Translated & summarized from Kikar HaShabbat by baba
Recent Israeli election polls indicate a close race between the "change bloc" and the "Netanyahu bloc," with neither expected to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government. Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party is projected to be the largest. Arab parties could hold significant sway with 14-16 seats. The final results may vary from polls due to turnout and other factors.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israeli election polls show no bloc is projected to win the 61 seats needed to form a government.
- The "change bloc" holds a slight lead over the "Netanyahu bloc" in most recent surveys.
- Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party is predicted to be the largest party in the upcoming election.
- Arab parties are expected to win between 14 and 16 seats, potentially impacting coalition formation.
- Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" party and Yoaz Hendel's "HaMiluimnikim-HaKalkalit" are polling below the electoral threshold.
- Final election results could differ significantly from poll predictions.
With just four days until election day, the latest polls released indicate a complex political landscape in Israel, with neither the "change bloc" nor the "Netanyahu bloc" securing the necessary 61 seats for a governing majority. Approximately 7.3 million eligible voters are expected to cast their ballots on Tuesday.
The polls from Channels 11, 12, and 13 suggest the "change bloc" holds a slight advantage of 2 to 6 seats over the "Netanyahu bloc." The "Yashar!" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to be the largest party, while Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" party appears to be falling below the electoral threshold in most surveys.
Arab parties, typically not aligned with either bloc, are predicted to win between 14 and 16 seats, a factor that could significantly influence coalition-building possibilities. A weighted average of the main polls shows "Yashar!" leading with 22 seats, followed by the Likud party under Benjamin Netanyahu with 20, and Naftali Bennett's "Achva" party with 15.
In the Haredi sector, United Torah Judaism led by Yaakov Asher is expected to get 8 seats, and Shas led by Aryeh Deri 7 seats. The "Democrats" party led by Yair Golan and the Joint List led by Yosef Jabareen are each projected to win 9 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu under Avigdor Lieberman and Otzma Yehudit under Itamar Ben-Gvir are each polling at 8 seats, with Religious Zionism-Identity led by Bezalel Smotrich at 7 seats. Ra'am is expected to secure 6 seats.
According to the averages, "Amcha Israel" and "HaMiluimnikim-HaKalkalit" led by Yoaz Hendel are not expected to pass the electoral threshold, though "HaMiluimnikim-HaKalkalit" did cross it in one poll. One specific poll from Kan News showed "Yashar!" with 22 seats and Likud with 20, while another from Channel 12 showed "Yashar!" with 23 and Likud with 21. A poll from Channel 13 indicated "Yashar!" with 22 seats and Likud with 19. A separate i24NEWS poll presented a different outcome, with the Likud leading at 26 seats and "Yashar!" at 21.
It is important to note that actual election results may differ significantly from poll predictions due to factors such as voter turnout, the distribution of votes for parties below the threshold, and last-minute developments.
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