New Poll Shows No Clear Majority Ahead of Israeli Elections
Translated & summarized from Cursorinfo by baba
A new poll indicates no clear majority in Israel's upcoming elections, with Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leading with 20 mandates and the Likud party at 18. The survey of 1016 respondents shows a divided public on coalition preferences and leadership, with 46% favoring Eisenkot over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a deadlock scenario, a majority support new elections over a rotational government, and nearly half are skeptical of pre-election military actions.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- A new poll shows Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leading with 20 mandates, ahead of Likud's 18.
- No political bloc is projected to secure a stable majority in upcoming Israeli elections.
- 46% of respondents prefer Gadi Eisenkot as Prime Minister, compared to 38% for Benjamin Netanyahu.
- A majority of Israelis would support new elections if no coalition can be formed.
- Nearly half of respondents are skeptical of pre-election military actions, viewing them as political.
- Benny Gantz's Blue and White party risks not crossing the electoral threshold.
A recent poll indicates that no single political bloc is poised to secure a stable majority in the upcoming elections, leaving the final distribution of power highly uncertain. The survey, conducted by the Madad Institute in partnership with Stat-Net, Project Midgam, and Ascarya, reveals significant electoral shifts even before Benny Gantz officially withdrew from the political race.
If elections were held today for the 26th Knesset, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party would emerge as the leading force with 20 mandates. The ruling Likud party would follow with 18 mandates, while Naftali Bennett's Bayahad bloc shows a steady rise, gaining two seats to reach 14 mandates.
The Democraticim political association, led by Yair Golan, and the United List are each projected to win nine mandates. The "Our Home Israel" party is expected to secure eight seats, with the far-right and religious factions (Tsiyanut Datit, Otzma Yehudit, Yahadut HaTorah, and Shas) each obtaining seven. The Ra'am movement would hold six parliamentary positions.
Notably, Benny Gantz's "Blue and White" and an ultra-Orthodox party structure risk failing to cross the electoral threshold and enter the Knesset.
The poll suggests an opposition bloc led by Eisenkot could garner 51 mandates, compared to 50 for the current coalition. Arab factions would collectively hold fifteen mandates. Analyzing the broader alignment around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his opponents' camp could consolidate 70 votes against 50 for his loyalists.
Regarding preferred leadership, 46 percent of respondents favored Gadi Eisenkot for Prime Minister, while 38 percent supported the incumbent Netanyahu, with 16 percent undecided. Public opinion on the desired coalition format is divided: one-third prefer a national unity government, 31 percent favor a purely right-wing government, and 23 percent support an opposition-led government excluding current ruling parties.
In a scenario where no bloc can form a coalition, 52 percent of respondents advocate for new elections, while 32 percent support a rotational government between Eisenkot and Netanyahu. The poll also addressed public trust in leadership regarding military action before elections, with nearly half expressing deep skepticism and viewing such moves as political calculation, while one-third would trust the government's decision.
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