Israeli Election Polls Show Tight Race, No Clear Majority

Four recent Israeli election polls indicate a closely contested race with no decisive majority for any political bloc, three weeks before the election. The Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is leading in the polls, but neither the opposition nor the current coalition bloc is projected to reach the 61-seat threshold needed for a majority in the Knesset. The average of the polls shows the two main blocs nearly tied, with the opposition bloc holding a slight lead of about 1.5 mandates. The party "Amcha Israel," led by Ofer Vinter, is a significant factor, appearing in some polls above the electoral threshold and in others below it, which could shift the coalition's mandate count between 49 and 53 seats. The "Handel-Zelicha" party consistently polls at four mandates and is not currently aligned with either bloc. Arab parties, including the Joint List and Ra'am, collectively hold around 13.5 mandates. If "Handel-Zelicha" were to join the coalition bloc, it would reach an average of 54.5 mandates, while the opposition combined with Arab parties could theoretically reach 65.5 mandates, though forming such a government is not implied. The largest single party in the average is Yashar with 21.8 mandates, followed by the Likud with 19.5 mandates. Other parties like "Yachad" are polling at 12.5 mandates, with smaller parties like "Democrats" (9), "Yisrael Beiteinu" (8.8), "Otzma Yehudit" and the Joint List (8.3 each), "United Torah Judaism" (7.8), and "Shas" (7.3) falling within single-digit mandate ranges.