Israeli Polls Show Tight Race, Economic Concerns Top Voter Priorities
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
Two new Israeli polls released Thursday show a deeply divided political landscape, with one survey predicting a 51-51 seat tie between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition, while another gives Netanyahu's bloc 60 seats. Economic concerns, including the cost of living, are the top priority for 29% of voters, surpassing security issues. A majority of Israelis (74%) fear for the state's future if the opposition forms the government. The polls were conducted by Kantar Institute for "Israel Hayom" and Direct Polls for "I24" in early October 2026.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Two Israeli polls show a divided political landscape, with one predicting a 51-51 seat tie and another giving Netanyahu's bloc 60 seats.
- Cost of living and the economy are the top electoral priorities for 29% of Israeli voters, according to one poll.
- A significant 74% of Israelis fear for the state's future if the opposition bloc forms the next government.
- The "Israel Hayom" poll shows the anti-Netanyahu bloc with 51 seats, while the "I24" poll gives Netanyahu's bloc 60 seats.
- Voter priorities include economy, security, democracy, Jewish identity, Haredi enlistment, and the October 7 attack inquiry.
- Post-October 7, 55% of Israelis report no change in their political views, while 29% moved further right.
Two recent Israeli opinion polls released on Thursday reveal a deeply polarized and uncertain political landscape. One survey indicated a near-even split between the two main political blocs, projecting 51 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp and an equal number for the opposing Zionist bloc, suggesting a political stalemate. The second poll, however, showed a clearer advantage for Netanyahu's bloc, predicting 60 seats and bringing them closer to a majority.
These diverging results coincide with growing public anxiety. A significant 74% of respondents expressed fear for the "future of the state" if the opposition bloc forms the next government. The cost of living and the economic situation emerged as the top electoral priority for 29% of voters, surpassing security and the ongoing war.
The "Israel Hayom" poll, published online, allocated 51 seats to the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc and 51 to Netanyahu's bloc. An additional 5 seats were assigned to the Harel-Zalicha alliance (Reservists-Economy), whose allegiance remains undeclared. Arab parties in this poll secured 13 seats, with the Joint List receiving 8 and the United List 5.
Conversely, the "I24" poll indicated Netanyahu's bloc would win 60 seats, while the opposing Zionist parties would garner 48. Arab parties were projected to win 12 seats, a one-seat shift from the previous week towards the bloc referred to in Israel as the "change bloc."
The "Israel Hayom" poll detailed party seat allocations: Yahad 22, Likud 21, Bayit Yehudi (Bennett-Lapid alliance) 13, Otzma Yehudit 9, Democrats (Labor-Meretz alliance) 8, Yisrael Beiteinu 8, United Torah Judaism 8, Joint List 8, Shas 7, Religious Zionism (led by Bezalel Smotrich) 6, United List 5, and Harel-Zalicha alliance 5.
The "I24" poll's party breakdown was: Likud 26, Yahad 20, Bayit Yehudi 11, Democrats 10, Otzma Yehudit 9, United Torah Judaism 8, Joint List 7, Shas 7, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, Religious Zionism 6, United List 5, and Amcha Israel 4.
Regarding voter priorities, "Israel Hayom" found that cost of living and the economy were most important to 29%, followed by personal and national security/war at 23%. Maintaining democracy and the rule of law ranked at 13%, Jewish identity at 9%, Haredi enlistment and burden-sharing at 9%, and establishing an inquiry committee for the October 7 attack at 7%. Judicial reform was cited by 4%, with 6% undecided.
When asked about their fears if the opposition formed the government, 74% expressed concern, 16% did not, and 10% were unsure. If their chosen bloc failed to form a government, 49% preferred new elections, 31% favored a unity government, and 20% were undecided.
Post-October 7, 55% stated their political views had not changed, 29% moved further right, and 8% moved further left. Furthermore, 40% reported no change in their views, 32% now support opposition parties more, and 15% support a Netanyahu-led government more.
The "Israel Hayom" poll was conducted by the Kantar Institute, headed by David Hassid, on October 7-8, 2026, with 555 respondents from a sample of 2359, and a margin of error of 4.2%. The "I24" poll data was collected and analyzed by Direct Polls, led by Tzuriell Sharon, on October 7, 2026, with 518 respondents and a margin of error of ±4.3% at 95% confidence.
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