Poll Predicts No Clear Winner in Upcoming Israeli Elections
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
A poll released Tuesday forecasts that no single bloc will win a majority in Israel's upcoming October 27 elections, making government formation difficult. Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party leads with 22 seats, followed by Likud with 20. The opposition bloc is projected to win 54 seats, the coalition 49, and Arab parties 13, indicating a hung parliament. Voters for the Joint List expressed the highest certainty in their electoral choice.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Poll predicts no bloc will win a majority in Israel's October 27 elections.
- Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party leads with 22 seats, Likud has 20.
- Opposition bloc projected to win 54 seats, coalition 49.
- Joint List voters show highest certainty in their electoral choice.
- Arab parties collectively projected to win 13 seats.
A new poll released Tuesday indicates that neither the governing coalition nor the opposition bloc will secure enough seats to form a government independently in the upcoming Israeli elections scheduled for October 27. The survey, published by the Walla! news site, projects a fragmented political landscape where parties may receive different seat allocations than currently anticipated.
According to the poll, Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party is expected to win 22 seats, while Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party would receive 20. Naftali Bennett's "B’Yachad" list is projected to get 13 seats, followed by "HaDemocratim" with 10, "Yisrael Beiteinu" with 9, and "Otzma Yehudit" and "Yahadut HaTorah" each with 8 seats. The Joint List is also predicted to secure 8 seats, Shas 7, Religious Zionism and Moshe Feiglin 6, the United Arab List 5, and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha's "Hahotrim Ha'economi" list 4 seats.
Based on these projections, the opposition parties would collectively gain 54 seats, the coalition parties 49 seats, Arab parties 13 seats, and the "Hahotrim Ha'economi" list 4 seats. The poll also found that 94% of respondents intending to vote for a party above the electoral threshold are certain of their choice, though 6% expressed some uncertainty. Voters for coalition parties (54%) reported higher certainty than opposition voters (35%), but the pollsters noted this might reflect shifts within blocs rather than between them.
Notably, voters for the Joint List showed the highest certainty of sticking to their choice, with 81% stating they would not change their minds. Likud voters followed at 68%, then Religious Zionism at 62%, and Shas voters at 56%.
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