Pollster: No Clear Winner in Upcoming 2026 Israeli Elections
Translated & summarized from Srugim by baba
Pollster Shmuel Rosner reported that current surveys for the 2026 Israeli elections show no clear winner, with neither political bloc able to secure a decisive victory. The ruling Likud party has seen a slow but steady increase in support over the last month. Rosner explained that voter decisions may be influenced by factors beyond current events, such as emotional comfort and campaign quality, and that pollsters merely reflect current public opinion, not predict the future. He also noted that the Likud and its allies are currently short of a majority, and commented on the uncertain status of Ofer Winter's party.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- No political bloc is close to victory in the 2026 Israeli elections, according to pollster Shmuel Rosner.
- The ruling Likud party has experienced a slow but consistent increase in support over the past month.
- Voter decisions may be influenced by emotional comfort and campaign quality, not just current events.
- Pollsters reflect current public opinion, not predict future election outcomes.
- The Likud and its allies are currently 10 seats short of forming a coalition.
- Ofer Winter's party is close to the electoral threshold, with its success uncertain day-to-day.
Pollster Shmuel Rosner stated that current polls indicate no clear winner in the upcoming 2026 Israeli elections, with neither political bloc achieving a decisive victory. Rosner, a pollster for Channel 13 and Maariv, explained in a radio interview that while the ruling Likud party has seen a slow but consistent rise in support over the past month, it is not dramatic.
Rosner addressed the assumption that difficult events or security reports negatively impact the ruling party, suggesting this is not necessarily true. He posited that voters may have other reasons for their choices beyond current events, such as personal familiarity or emotional comfort, especially as election day approaches. He also highlighted the quality of election campaigns as a potential factor influencing poll fluctuations.
Clarifying the role of pollsters, Rosner emphasized that they are not fortune tellers. Their job is to present a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment, indicating how people would vote if an election were held that day and translating that into potential Knesset seats.
Regarding the current political landscape, Rosner noted that the Likud and its potential allies currently hold 55 Knesset seats, significantly fewer than the number they had when forming their coalition. He also commented on the political standing of Ofer Winter, whose party is hovering around the electoral threshold, and suggested that Netanyahu does not act as if Winter is part of his coalition, despite Rosner's belief that he is.
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