Pollster: Opposition Bloc Close to Victory, Then Collapsed
Translated & summarized from Srugim by baba
A new poll indicates a political tie between Israel's governing and opposition blocs, with both projected to win 52 seats. Dr. Menachem Lazar, who conducted the poll, explained that the opposition's support has eroded, partly due to the increasing influence of Arab parties and fragmentation among opposition voters. While Benjamin Netanyahu maintains strong loyalty within his bloc, opposition leaders lack similar backing. The entry of Ofer Winter's new party is seen as bolstering the right-wing bloc.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- A new poll shows Israel's governing and opposition blocs tied at 52 seats each.
- Opposition support has declined, with Arab parties' influence and voter fragmentation cited as reasons.
- Benjamin Netanyahu remains the undisputed leader of his bloc, enjoying high voter loyalty.
- Opposition leaders lack the strong loyalty Netanyahu commands from his supporters.
- Ofer Winter's new party is seen as strengthening the right-wing bloc by attracting disillusioned voters.
A recent poll suggests a near tie between Israel's governing and opposition blocs, a stark contrast to expectations just weeks ago of a clear advantage for the government. Dr. Menachem Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research, which conducted the latest Maariv poll, discussed the findings on 103fm radio, attributing the opposition's decline in support to several factors.
Lazar indicated that the current seat projection shows a split, with Netanyahu's coalition, including Ofer Winter's new party, at 52 mandates, and the Zionist opposition also at 52. A separate party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha is projected to receive four mandates, with the final count dependent on how they are categorized. Lazar noted a decrease in the strength of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, explaining that while it was once close to a majority without Arab parties, this has diminished. He suggested that an increase in the representation of Arab parties within the Knesset could further reduce the opposition's gains, estimating their combined mandate count at 13 or 14.
Regarding the 38% of voters who prefer Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister, Lazar stated this reflects his position as the undisputed leader of his bloc, with 84% of right-wing voters wanting him in that role. He contrasted this with the opposition, where he claimed leaders like Gabi Ashkenazi do not command similar loyalty, and noted a persistent fragmentation among opposition voters who support different leaders like Bennett, Ashkenazi, and Lieberman.
Lazar also cautioned that mergers within the opposition are not a guaranteed solution, citing past research where combined entities performed worse than the sum of their parts. He observed that the opposition is failing to translate poll advantages into forward momentum and is instead declining. The entry of Ofer Winter's 'Am Israel' party, Lazar believes, strengthens the right by attracting disillusioned right-wing voters, potentially at the expense of the Likud party itself, contributing to the overall increase in the right-wing bloc's power.
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