New Poll Shows Opposition Dominating Israeli Knesset Elections

A recent poll conducted by the Midgam Institute and broadcast by Keshet-12 indicates a significant shift in Israeli voter preferences, suggesting the current coalition would suffer a major defeat if elections were held today. The combined strength of the ruling coalition parties would amount to only 49 seats in the Knesset, while opposition forces, including Arab parties, would form a stable majority of 67 seats.

The Yashar movement, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is currently leading the electoral race with a projected 23 seats. The ruling Likud party, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, trails with 21 seats. Other parties' projected seat allocations include: Yahad (13), Yisrael Beiteinu and Democrats (9 each), the Joint List and Yahadut HaTorah (8 each), Shas and Otzma Yehudit (7 each), the Religious Zionism-Zeut bloc (6), Ra'am (5), and the Reservists-Calcalist alliance (4).

Notably, Yaron Winter's Amcha Yisrael party and the Blue and White party failed to cross the electoral threshold. The poll also explored public opinion on responsibility for the failures leading up to the October 7th attacks. Nearly half of respondents (47%) believe both the government and the army share equal blame. A quarter (25%) place sole responsibility on the political leadership, while 17% blame the military command, and 11% were undecided.

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Gadi Eisenkot holds a slight lead over Benjamin Netanyahu, with 41% of respondents favoring Eisenkot compared to 38% for Netanyahu. Netanyahu performs better against Naftali Bennett (41% to 37%) and significantly stronger against Avigdor Lieberman (43% to 26%).