Small Parties Could Decide Israeli Election Outcome, Poll Suggests
Translated & summarized from Zman Yisrael by baba
A new poll released on October 8, 2026, suggests that smaller parties could determine the winner of the upcoming Israeli elections, impacting which candidate receives the most recommendations to form a government. The "change bloc" leads with 55 mandates versus 51 for parties supporting Benjamin Netanyahu. The "Am Israel" party is barely crossing the threshold, while the "Reservists-Economic" party falls below it. Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party leads individual party polling with 24 mandates, followed by the Likud with 20.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Small parties may decide the Israeli election outcome, according to a new poll.
- The "change bloc" has 55 mandates, while pro-Netanyahu parties have 51, the poll shows.
- Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party leads with 24 mandates, followed by Likud with 20.
- The "Am Israel" party is barely crossing the electoral threshold.
- The "Reservists-Economic" party falls below the electoral threshold, the poll indicates.
- Arab parties, including the Joint List and Ra'am, show increased support.
A new poll indicates that the fate of smaller parties may determine the outcome of the upcoming Israeli elections, potentially deciding which candidate receives the most recommendations to form a government. The survey, conducted by political consultant Yossi Tatika of Tatika Research and Media in collaboration with the Adgenda panel led by Roi Schindler, shows the "change bloc" with 55 mandates compared to 51 for parties supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The poll, conducted on October 7-8, 2026, surveyed 500 Jewish and Arab respondents, with a maximum margin of error of 4.4%. The timing of the survey, coinciding with the third anniversary of the October 7th attacks, may have influenced participant responses. The "Am Israel" party, led by Ofer Vinter, is barely crossing the electoral threshold at 3.60%, while the "Reservists-Economic" party, headed by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, falls below the threshold at 3.20%.
Recent shifts in these smaller parties are impacting overall mandate projections. The survey also noted a continued strengthening trend among Arab parties, with the Joint List rising to nine mandates, a week after Balad chairman Sami Abu Shahadeh announced his party's withdrawal following a Supreme Court recommendation. Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party stands at five mandates.
Leading the poll is Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party with 24 mandates, followed by the Likud party with 20. The bloc supporting Netanyahu has 51 mandates, while the bloc opposing him has 69. The current coalition has 47 mandates, the "change bloc" 55, Am Israel 4, Ra'am 5, and the Joint List 9.
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