Polls Show Shifts, Small Parties Struggle Ahead of Israeli Elections

Political analyst Dr. Selim Breik discussed the upcoming Israeli elections, cautioning that recent poll results should be viewed with care due to potential margins of error. He highlighted that small parties are facing a dual challenge: a rise in overall voter turnout could help them surpass the electoral threshold, but a decrease in participation could lead to their downfall. Breik noted that the collapse of small parties aligned with the current government could significantly alter the election's landscape. He urged Arab citizens in Israel to increase their voting participation, suggesting it could impact the chances of parties close to the threshold.

Breik explained that some small parties continue to run despite slim chances of entering the Knesset, driven by internal political considerations such as maintaining public presence, securing campaign funding, and demonstrating street-level strength, rather than solely aiming for parliamentary seats. He pointed out that electoral history shows some lists participating multiple times without nearing the threshold, reflecting broader party and political calculations beyond immediate electoral gains.

The events of October 7th remain a potent factor in the upcoming elections, even three years later, with the anniversary occurring just weeks before the vote. Breik stated that the impact of these events extends beyond accountability for failures, encompassing divisions within the opposition and how voters interpret them through their ideological lenses. He observed that a segment of the Israeli right still views Netanyahu as a capable electoral leader, even among voters who believe he failed on October 7th. Breik suggested that the religious Zionist movement sees Netanyahu and the Likud as a means to achieve their political and ideological goals, while also leveraging the Likud's gradual weakening to increase their own influence within the state.

Breik attributed Netanyahu's continued influence to a "personal loyalty" among some voters. He explained that even those acknowledging government failures on October 7th might still see Netanyahu as a strong leader or preferable to the available alternatives. Breik also credited Netanyahu with building a media apparatus and cultivating influencers over the years who shape public opinion, contributing to a reinterpretation of the October 7th events for a portion of the public. He concluded that narratives surrounding responsibility for security failures have become part of the political conflict, and how these narratives are presented can affect voters' assessments of Netanyahu and his political future.