Israeli Election Polls Show Wide Discrepancy in Likud Support
Translated & summarized from NEWSru Israel by baba
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israeli election polls show Yashar party consistently polling 21-22 seats.
- Likud party support varies significantly across polls, from 19 to 32 seats.
- Other major parties like Bayahad and Demokratim show moderate seat fluctuations.
- Ra'am consistently polls at 5 seats, while United Arab List gets 7-9 seats.
- The success of smaller parties like Amcha Israel is crucial for coalition building.
- No poll indicates the current coalition parties will reach a 61-seat majority.
Five pre-election polls released between September 30 and October 2 reveal significant variations in projected Knesset seat allocations for the upcoming October 27 elections. While the Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, shows consistent support across most surveys, the Likud party's projected seat count varies dramatically.
Polls from News 13, Zman Israel, i24NEWS, Channel 14, and Maariv newspaper present differing figures. News 13's poll on September 30 projected Yashar with 21 seats and Likud with 19. Zman Israel's poll on September 30-October 1 gave both parties 21 seats. In contrast, an i24NEWS poll on October 1 showed Likud gaining significantly to 28 seats while Yashar received 22. A Channel 14 poll released on October 1 evening indicated Likud could secure as many as 32 seats, with Yashar at 21.
The Maariv poll, published on October 2, placed Yashar at 21 seats and Likud at 19. Across these five surveys, Yashar consistently received between 21 and 22 seats. However, Likud's projections ranged from a low of 19 seats in the News 13 and Maariv polls to a high of 32 seats in the Channel 14 poll.
Support for other major parties also showed variation, with Bayahad projected to win between 8 and 13 seats, Demokratim between 8 and 11, and Yisrael Beiteinu between 6 and 10 seats. The Ra'am party consistently received 5 seats in all five polls, while the United Arab List was projected to win between 7 and 9 seats.
The Amcha Israel party, led by Ofer Winter, crossed the electoral threshold in four out of five polls, receiving 4-5 seats, but failed to do so in the Channel 14 poll. The Miluimnikim-Kalkalit union received 4-5 seats in the Zman Israel and Maariv polls but fell below the threshold in the News 13, i24NEWS, and Channel 14 surveys.
None of the polls, considering only the current coalition parties without potential additional partners, indicated they would reach the 61-seat majority threshold. The final distribution of power appears to depend on whether Amcha Israel passes the electoral threshold and how smaller parties are categorized into blocs, as well as the stance of parties not among the four main opposition parties towards Arab lists.
Read the original at NEWSru IsraelMentioned
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