Israeli Poll Shows Deep Societal Division, Shifting Party Fortunes

A recent poll conducted by the Kantar Institute for HaYom newspaper reveals a deeply polarized Israeli society, with 75% of coalition voters and 78% of opposition voters expressing significant fear for the country's future if the opposing bloc forms the next government. This division comes despite the unity experienced during the October 7th attacks and the subsequent period.

Amidst the ongoing political uncertainty and the failure of either bloc to secure a clear majority, a substantial portion of the public appears resigned to the possibility of further elections. While about a third of both coalition and opposition voters would prefer a unity government if no bloc achieves a majority, a larger majority favors repeat elections. This sentiment is reflected in the stagnant poll numbers for Benny Gantz's the party party, which is struggling to gain traction in an environment where unity governments are not a preferred option.

Naftali Bennett's new party, 'Achva', stands out as an exception, with a majority of its voters preferring a unity government over new elections. The latest seat allocation projections show the Likud with 21 seats, the party with 22, and Bennett's party with 13. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is polling at 8 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu at 8, Religious Zionism at 6, and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit is rising to 9 seats. The ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, are polling at 7 and 8 seats respectively. The party is projected to receive 8 seats, and Ra'am 5.

Ben-Gvir's campaign strategy, suggesting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is distancing himself to form a government with Benny Gantz, appears effective. Netanyahu's recent joint event with Bezalel Smotrich, excluding Ben-Gvir, has further fueled this narrative, especially after Smotrich signed a surplus agreement with Religious Zionism, leaving Ben-Gvir without alternatives. While Likud denies any intentional distancing, these moves benefit Otzma Yehudit's campaign, with Ben-Gvir gaining a seat in the polls, though Likud internally claims no seat loss from this perceived rift.

Among newer parties, the candidate and Yosef Zelekha's faction remains stable with five seats, though this is still close to the electoral threshold, especially with expected higher voter turnout. Zelekha's platform focuses on the cost of living, a key issue for 29% of Israelis, differentiating him from other parties. In contrast, Ofer Vinter's party is polling below the threshold, despite some recent upward momentum. His support has been eroded by past videos concerning a Palestinian state and criticism from Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman. Vinter's party plans to present legislation on reservist status and a national information program, aiming to stabilize their position.

Notably, despite extensive media coverage, issues like the investigation committee and the conscription law rank low among voters' priorities for deciding their vote. Economic issues and personal security are far more significant, with only 9% prioritizing the burden of military service and 7% the investigation committee.