New Poll Shows Netanyahu Facing Serious Challenge

A new pre-election poll in Israel indicates that Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party is leading Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "Likud" party. However, neither major political bloc is projected to secure a parliamentary majority. The survey, conducted by Channel 12, suggests Eisenkot's party could win 23 seats, while Likud would receive 20. Netanyahu's party has lost one seat since the previous poll, but the overall balance of power between political camps remains unchanged. Opposition parties collectively are expected to gain 54 seats, the current coalition bloc 49, and Arab parties 13. The joint list of Yoaz Hendel and the party leader is projected to take four seats. Naftali Bennett's party is predicted to win 13 mandates, while Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" and Yair Golan's "Democrats" are each expected to secure nine seats. Within the current coalition, Shas and "Otzma Yehudit" are projected to get eight seats each, "Yahadut HaTorah" seven, and the bloc of Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin six. Notably, Ofer Winter's party is polling at only 1.8% and is at risk of not crossing the electoral threshold to enter the Knesset. Parties led by Benny Gantz, Avi Maoz, and several smaller political groups also face the possibility of remaining outside the Knesset. The poll also examined preferred prime ministerial candidates. When pitted against Eisenkot, Netanyahu trails with 35% support compared to Eisenkot's 45%, with 15% undecided. Against Naftali Bennett, Netanyahu fares slightly better, with 36% supporting him versus 37% for Bennett, and 21% undecided. In a matchup with Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu leads 35% to 27%, with 33% undecided. The survey also explored the potential for a national unity government if no bloc can form a coalition. Forty percent of respondents support such a scenario under Netanyahu or Eisenkot, while 37% oppose it. However, specific candidate preferences reveal significant divisions: 61% of current coalition supporters oppose a unity government led by Eisenkot, and 79% of opposition supporters are against a Netanyahu-led unity government. Regarding voter certainty, 58% of Israelis state they have already decided on their party choice for the upcoming elections. Twenty-five percent will make their final decision closer to the vote, 6% on election day, and 5% at the polling station. Voter certainty is higher among potential coalition party voters (71%) compared to opposition supporters (58%).