Conflicting Polls Show Netanyahu's Bloc Short of Majority Ahead of Election
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
Two Israeli polls released 15 days before the upcoming Knesset elections show conflicting results regarding the balance of power. A Channel 12 poll places Gadi Eisenkot's Yachad party ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, with neither bloc reaching the 61 seats needed for a majority. Conversely, a Channel 14 poll shows the Likud leading and its bloc achieving a 61-seat majority. The polls also differ on the seat allocations for various other parties, including Shas, Yahadut HaTorah, and the Arab lists.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Two Israeli polls released 15 days before the October 27 election show conflicting results for party strength.
- Channel 12 poll shows Yachad leading Likud, with neither bloc reaching a 61-seat majority.
- Channel 14 poll shows Likud leading and its bloc achieving a 61-seat majority.
- The polls differ significantly on seat projections for major parties like Likud and Yachad.
- The Joint List and United Arab List are projected to win a combined 13 seats in both polls.
- Several parties, including Kahol Lavan, are projected to fall below the electoral threshold in one poll.
With 15 days remaining until the Knesset elections on October 27, two Israeli polls have presented significantly different projections of the political landscape. A Channel 12 poll indicated that Gadi Eisenkot's Yachad party maintained its lead over the Likud by three seats, while a Channel 14 poll, perceived as close to Benjamin Netanyahu, showed the Likud with a substantial lead and its bloc securing a majority of 61 seats.
The Channel 12 poll, which showed no change from the previous week, projected Yachad receiving 23 seats, followed by Likud with 20. Naftali Bennett's Bayad party was placed third with 13 seats. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Yair Golan's Democrats were each projected to win 9 seats. The Joint List was expected to get 8 seats, the same as Shas and Otzma Yehudit. Yahadut HaTorah was projected for 7 seats, Religious Zionism-Zehut for 6, the United Arab List for 5, and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha's Reserve Soldiers and Economic party for 4 seats. Based on this, Netanyahu's bloc, comprising Likud, Shas, Yahadut HaTorah, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism, would secure only 49 seats, falling short of the 61 needed for a government. The anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties, Yachad, Bayad, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Democrats, collectively garnered 54 seats, rising to 58 when including Hendel and Zelekha's party. The Joint List and the United Arab List together were projected to win 13 seats.
Several lists in the Channel 12 poll remained below the electoral threshold, including Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael (1.8%), Benny Gantz's Kahol Lavan (0.9%), and Avi Maoz's Noam Yisrael (0.5%).
In contrast, the Channel 14 poll presented a vastly different scenario. It awarded the Likud 29 seats, while Yachad received only 20. Shas and the Democrats were each projected to win 10 seats. The Joint List and Yahadut HaTorah were expected to secure 8 seats apiece. Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit, and Bayad were each projected for 7 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu and the United Arab List were each expected to get 5 seats, with Hendel and Zelekha's party receiving 4 seats. According to Channel 14's own calculations, the right-wing bloc reached 61 seats, compared to 46 for what it termed the "left-wing bloc." The two Arab lists combined were projected to win 13 seats.
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