Israeli Election Polls Show Tight Race, No Clear Winner

Three days before Israel's general election, major television channels have released conflicting poll results, potentially reshaping political calculations. The race between Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot is intensifying, with recent surveys indicating Eisenkot's party leading Likud, though the findings vary significantly. Crucially, neither major political bloc appears to have a guaranteed majority to form a government.

Polls from Channel 12, Channel 13, and Kan 11, released ahead of the October 27 election, suggest the outcome will depend heavily on smaller parties near the electoral threshold. According to these surveys, Eisenkot's Yashar! party is projected to win between 22 and 23 Knesset seats, while Netanyahu's Likud is expected to secure 19 to 21 seats. The alliance of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid is forecast to take 14 to 15 seats, highlighting a close contest with no obvious victor.

Other parties' projections include Yair Golan's Democrats with eight to ten seats, the Joint Arab List with nine, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu with eight. Right-wing parties are also closely contested: Shas is predicted to get seven to eight seats, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit eight, and Yahadut HaTorah seven to eight. Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism is expected to win six to seven seats, and Ra'am five to six.

Particular attention is on former Brigadier General Ofer Winter's Am Israel party, which polls suggest will fall short of the electoral threshold with 2.5% to 3.1% support, potentially impacting the right-wing bloc's coalition-building ability. The fate of Yoaz Hendel's alliance is also uncertain, with Kan 11 predicting four seats while other channels place it below the threshold.

Bloc calculations show further divergence. Kan 11's poll gives Eisenkot's bloc 52 seats and Netanyahu's 50, with Arab parties at 14 and Hendel's alliance at four. Channel 12's poll shows a stronger lead for Eisenkot's bloc with 56 seats, while Netanyahu's bloc gets 50, still falling short of the 61 needed for a majority.

In contrast, an i24NEWS poll released Friday shows Likud as the largest party with 26 seats, ahead of Eisenkot's Yashar! with 21. Bennett and Lapid's alliance is projected at 12 seats. The Joint Arab List is predicted to get nine seats, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, and Democrats eight each. Yahadut HaTorah may get seven, Religious Zionism and Yisrael Beiteinu six each. Ra'am is at five, and Winter's party secures four seats.

These differing scenarios underscore the election's uncertainty. While some polls show Eisenkot leading, i24NEWS indicates Likud maintaining its lead among individual parties. Further intrigue comes from the Polymarket prediction platform, where the probability of Gadi Eisenkot becoming the next prime minister is around 51%, compared to Benjamin Netanyahu's 28% and Naftali Bennett's 15%. The total volume of bets on the next prime minister exceeds $52 million, though these reflect market expectations, not official polls. Ultimately, winning the most seats does not guarantee the premiership; coalition-building ability will be decisive.