Israeli Election Tight Race: Eizenkot Leads Netanyahu, No Majority Expected

Less than a week before Israel's parliamentary elections, a close contest is unfolding between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his challenger Gadi Eizenkot. Eizenkot's party, Yishar, is leading Likud in all four recent polls. However, neither political bloc is projected to secure an independent majority in the Knesset, suggesting smaller parties and Arab lists could play a crucial role in government formation.

Average poll results from Channels 12, 13, KAN, and Walla show Yishar with 22.5 seats and Netanyahu's Likud with 19.75 seats. The situation regarding a governing majority remains complex, with Netanyahu's bloc averaging 50 seats and the opposition parties totaling 53. A minimum of 61 seats out of 120 is required for a majority.

Eizenkot's lead is particularly pronounced in the latest Walla poll, where Yishar gained a seat to 23 after Benny Gantz withdrew from the campaign, while Likud dropped to 19. Channel 13 polls also show Eizenkot ahead with 20 seats to Likud's 18, with the blocs at 50 and 51 seats respectively, indicating a need for additional support for either side to form a government.

KAN's poll presents a different scenario, with Yishar at 23 seats and Likud gaining to 21. Naftali Bennett's party, B'Jachad, holds 12 seats, and in this poll, Netanyahu's bloc leads with 53 seats compared to Eizenkot's 50. Channel 12 shows Yishar with 24 seats, ahead of Likud's 21, and Bennett's party rising to 14 seats, solidifying its position as the third-largest force.

The threshold for smaller parties is proving challenging. The alliance led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha falls below the electoral threshold in the Channel 12 poll but is projected to win four seats in Walla and KAN polls. Ofer Winter's Volk Israel party is also struggling to cross the threshold, only making it into the Knesset in one of the four recent surveys.

Arab parties, including the Joint List and Ra'am, are expected to collectively win around 14 seats, potentially influencing the opposition's majority. The Joint List averages 8.5 seats and Ra'am 5.5, underscoring their significant impact in a close race. On the right, Otzma Yehudit and Shas each average 7.75 seats, United Torah Judaism has seven, and Religious Zionism has 6.75. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu is projected at eight seats, and the Democrats at nine.

The polls indicate Eizenkot is leading as the largest single party, but the overall blocs remain closely matched, with neither having a clear path to a coalition majority. The success of smaller parties in crossing the electoral threshold could be decisive, as even a few seats can shift the balance of power.