Israeli Election Tight Race: Eizenkot Leads Netanyahu, No Majority Expected
Translated & summarized from Jüdische Allgemeine by baba
Gadi Eizenkot's party leads Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud in Israeli election polls, but neither is expected to win a majority in the Knesset. The average of four recent polls shows Eizenkot's party with 22.5 seats and Likud with 19.75, with neither bloc projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority. Smaller parties and Arab lists could hold the balance of power in forming a government.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eizenkot's party leads Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud in Israeli election polls, but neither is expected to win a majority.
- Average polls show Eizenkot's party with 22.5 seats and Likud with 19.75, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority.
- Smaller parties and Arab lists could play a decisive role in forming a government due to the close race.
- The withdrawal of Benny Gantz from the race has benefited Eizenkot's party in recent polls.
- The success of smaller parties in crossing the electoral threshold could significantly impact the final seat distribution.
Less than a week before Israel's parliamentary elections, a close contest is unfolding between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his challenger Gadi Eizenkot. Eizenkot's party, Yishai, leads Likud in all four recent polls. However, neither political bloc is projected to secure a majority in the Knesset, suggesting smaller parties and Arab lists could play a crucial role in forming a government.
On average, polls from Channel 12, Channel 13, KAN, and Walla show Yishai with 22.5 seats and Likud with 19.75. The Netanyahu bloc is estimated to receive 50 seats, while opposition parties are projected to get 53, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Eizenkot's lead is particularly pronounced in the latest Walla poll, where Yishai gained a seat to 23 after Benny Gantz withdrew from the race, while Likud dropped to 19. Channel 13 also shows Eizenkot ahead with 20 seats to Likud's 18, with the Netanyahu and opposition blocs at 50 and 51 seats respectively, necessitating coalition support for either side.
The KAN poll presents a different scenario, with Yishai at 23 seats and Likud gaining to 21. Naftali Bennett's party, Bayit Yehudi, holds 12 seats. In this poll, Netanyahu's bloc leads with 53 seats against Eizenkot's 50. Channel 12 shows Yishai with 24 seats and Likud with 21, with Bennett's party rising to 14 seats, solidifying its position as the third-largest force.
Smaller parties face challenges. The alliance led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha falls below the electoral threshold in the Channel 12 poll but secures four seats in Walla and KAN polls. Ofer Winter's Volk Israel party only clears the threshold in one of the four recent surveys. Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, collectively average 14 seats, potentially influencing opposition majority calculations, though their political alignment and willingness to support a government remain factors.
Right-wing parties like Otzma Yehudit and Shas average 7.75 seats each, United Torah Judaism has seven, and Religious Zionism has 6.75. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu is expected to win eight seats, and the Democrats nine. While Eizenkot leads as the largest single party, the narrow gaps between blocs mean neither has a clear path to forming a coalition. The success of smaller parties in crossing the threshold could significantly alter the balance of power.
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