New Poll Shows Netanyahu's Likud Declining, Far-Right Parties Gain Ground

A new poll published Sunday by Kan 11 reveals a continued decline for the Likud party, reaching a monthly low of just 21 seats. Concurrently, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party has hit its lowest point, shrinking to 7 seats. The governing parties are paying the price for the rise of parties on the political fringe, with Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism (5 seats) and Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party (4 seats) both managing to cross the electoral threshold for the first time since Winter announced his new party. On the other side of the political map, Gadi Eisenkot's "Yash" party remains stable, leading with 24 seats, alongside Naftali Bennett's "Achadut" party holding steady at 14 seats. However, a one-seat drop for the Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu brings the anti-Netanyahu bloc to 55 seats, while his supporters stand at 52. In terms of prime ministerial suitability, Netanyahu narrowly trails Bennett (37% to 36%), but lags further behind Eisenkot, who enjoys 40% support. The poll also examined potential right-wing unity scenarios, indicating that a joint run by Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would reduce their combined strength to 10 seats (down from 12 separately) and boost Winter to 5 seats. Conversely, a union between Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin would elevate Religious Zionism to 7 seats and push Winter below the threshold. Despite Ben-Gvir's firm rejection of negotiations for a joint run with Religious Zionism, Likud insists the option remains open, expressing concern over lost votes if either party runs alone, a scenario reminiscent of Meretz's failure in the previous election. Netanyahu's circle is also worried about Winter's entry into the political arena, further splitting the right-wing vote. While Winter's actions are seen as difficult to influence, Netanyahu reportedly holds more leverage over Ben-Gvir. Likud estimates that further poll data highlighting the electoral cost of division will increase public and political pressure on Ben-Gvir to negotiate.