Netanyahu Faces Shrinking Right-Wing Options as Ben Gvir Refuses to Unite

With just over a week and a half remaining before the Knesset election candidate list deadline, the right-wing bloc in Israel is in turmoil. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is deeply engaged in trying to organize the bloc but faces significant obstacles as key players refuse to unite. Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of Otzma Yehudit and Israel's National Security Minister, has definitively rejected Netanyahu's calls to merge or form alliances, insisting on running independently. Despite Netanyahu's public invitations for a joint meeting with Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, Ben Gvir has declined, and Netanyahu's team has not even arranged a meeting, anticipating refusal.

Meanwhile, a new right-wing party led by former IDF General Ofer Winter, "Amcha Israel," is gaining momentum and surpassing the electoral threshold. Winter refuses to merge with existing factions, emphasizing his party's fresh slate untainted by the October 7 failures. His party targets disillusioned right-wing voters, including some from Netanyahu's base, and has even launched campaigns in Arab communities through candidate Yosef Hadad, aiming to attract young voters.

Netanyahu's initial strategy envisioned four right-wing lists cooperating to maximize seats through surplus vote agreements. However, the reality now includes six right-wing lists, risking vote dilution and potential losses. Netanyahu has reduced his negative campaign against "Yisrael Beiteinu" leader Gadi Eisenkot to focus pressure on Ben Gvir, including public criticism and social media posts. Netanyahu fears that a larger Ben Gvir could shrink Likud's share, as many of Ben Gvir's supporters come from Likud's traditional voter base.

Negotiations continue between Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin's "Zehut" party, with a possible agreement placing Feiglin second on the list. Netanyahu prefers a coalition including Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism but distrusts Winter's new party and thus pressures Ben Gvir instead. The fragmentation and independence of right-wing factions complicate Netanyahu's efforts to secure a stable right-wing bloc, with even a half-seat loss potentially altering the election outcome.

In summary, Netanyahu confronts a complex right-wing landscape marked by Ben Gvir's firm refusal to unite, Winter's rising new party, and ongoing negotiations among other factions, all threatening the cohesion and strength of the right-wing bloc ahead of the elections.