Israel Election Countdown: Key Alliances and Potential Departures Remain Uncertain

With just over a week until the October 27th Knesset elections, several parties are finalizing their candidate lists, but significant questions persist regarding potential alliances and last-minute changes. Yoav Segalovitz, former deputy minister of interior security, is reportedly in talks with Ra'am chairman Mansour Abbas about joining the Arab party's list. This move could be an attempt to prevent Ra'am's potential disqualification from future coalitions, a concern voiced by both the right-wing bloc and some parties within the "change bloc." Despite optimistic reports and a shared photo, no official agreement has been reached.

Meanwhile, parties like Benny Gantz's National Unity are still filling their Knesset slates. Gantz himself is reportedly exploring various political maneuvers, including potential mergers, and has acknowledged discussions with former colleague Chili Tropper, hinting that personal ego might not be a barrier. Other centrist parties, such as Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Naftali Bennett's "Achim," also have room on their lists, with National Unity expecting to offer many realistic positions given its strong poll numbers.

On the right, the situation is complex. Bezalel Smotrich and his Religious Zionism party may merge as reserved slots within the Likud party, forming a technical bloc. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly favors this option despite concerns it might alienate moderate voters. However, Netanyahu also faces challenges in filling Likud's reserved spots, particularly for women, and is seeking to add candidates with a socio-economic focus, potentially including former Kulanu chairman Moshe Kahlon.

Significant uncertainty also surrounds potential mergers among smaller right-wing parties. While Netanyahu is pushing for consolidation into fewer lists, parties like Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit and Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party are showing independent strength in polls, potentially allowing them to run alone. Winter, in particular, is positioning his party as a fresh alternative, distinct from the current government and the events of October 7th, aiming for the defense portfolio.

Several smaller "satellite" parties, including those led by Tropper, Yoaz Hendel, and Yuli Edelstein, are unlikely to cross the electoral threshold and are expected to withdraw from the race unless significant mergers occur. These parties, often referred to as the "third bloc," have struggled to translate public sentiment against political boycotts into tangible electoral support. The possibility of a surprise, high-impact candidate joining a list at the last minute appears slim, with most parties having revealed their key figures.