Ofer Winter's Entry Shakes Up Israeli Politics, Opposition Admits Losses

The entry of former IDF General Ofer Winter into the political arena is causing significant upheaval, with an opposition figure admitting that Winter's party has already cost the bloc about one and a half Knesset seats. According to internal analyses, some of this support is being drawn from voters who previously supported figures like Gabi Ashkenazi, Naftali Bennett, Benny Gantz, and Yoav Gallant. Winter's campaign believes this is just the beginning, anticipating further gains as his party is perceived as stable and likely to pass the electoral threshold.

Winter's appeal is seen as particularly strong among right-wing voters who may have been undecided or supporting other parties. While initially drawing from parties like National Unity, the concern is that a well-organized right-wing bloc could shift numbers internally rather than across blocs, potentially causing significant damage to the opposition. Winter's messaging emphasizes independence and loyalty to his core principles, potentially attracting right-wing voters seeking a distinct voice, even while stating he will recommend Benjamin Netanyahu for Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, negotiations continue among right-wing parties to form alliances before the upcoming election registry deadline. The most significant progress is reported between the Religious Zionism party and the Identity party (Zehut), though disagreements over list placements are hindering a final agreement. This potential merger faces challenges, including the need to accommodate incumbent Knesset members and reserved spots, particularly for Tzvi Mor, which could displace current lawmakers.

Despite public refusals, there is still hope within the Likud and Religious Zionism parties that pressure will lead Itamar Ben-Gvir to join a broader right-wing union before the list submission deadline next Tuesday.