Netanyahu's Likud Party Faces Steep Decline in Polls Amidst Radical Right Influence
Translated & summarized from Local Call by baba
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is experiencing a significant decline in voter support, according to recent polls, potentially losing up to half its voters from the 2022 election. This drop is attributed to the growing influence of radical right-wing parties and a perceived weakening of Netanyahu's leadership. The judicial overhaul initiated in early 2023 is cited as a key factor alienating the urban middle class, a traditional Likud base. While some polls show a continued right-wing bloc lead, it is largely due to smaller parties, not the Likud itself, suggesting Netanyahu is increasingly a figurehead for other political forces.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party faces a significant drop in polls, potentially losing a third to half of its voters from 2022.
- The right-wing bloc's standing is attributed to smaller parties, not Netanyahu's Likud, indicating his weakening leadership.
- The judicial overhaul initiated in early 2023 is seen as a major factor alienating the urban middle class from the Likud.
- Radical right-wing figures like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir are increasingly dictating government policy.
- Polls suggest Netanyahu is becoming a managed figurehead, with his base of supporters reportedly shrinking.
- The Likud's decline is seen as unprecedented, except for the 2006 election when Ariel Sharon left the party.
Recent polls suggest a significant drop in support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, potentially costing the right-wing bloc crucial seats in upcoming elections. While some surveys show the right-wing bloc maintaining parity or a slight lead over the "Eisenkot bloc," this is attributed not to the Likud, but to smaller parties on its right that are highly critical of Netanyahu. Analysts suggest that controversial remarks by figures like Yinon Magal, comparing Gadi Eisenkot to a "monkey," and the insistence on repeating such statements, could cost the right-wing camp a mandate.
The article argues that Netanyahu himself is increasingly becoming a managed figure rather than a manager, despite his long tenure as Prime Minister. His base of supporters, often called "Bibi-ists," is reportedly shrinking. The Likud, which held 32 seats in the current Knesset, is polling between 18 and 22 seats, indicating a potential loss of 350,000 to 500,000 voters from the 2022 election. This decline is unprecedented for the Likud, except for the 2006 election when Ariel Sharon left the party. Pollster Shlomo Filber presents a contrasting view, placing the Likud at around 30 seats and predicting a right-wing majority.
Furthermore, the article highlights that the right-wing bloc's continued viability in polls is largely due to parties like those led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, or those that have distanced themselves from Netanyahu, such as Religious Zionism. Even parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism are reportedly maintaining their strength and not aligning as strongly with Netanyahu as in the past. This suggests Netanyahu is currently a weak leader, even within his own camp, representing less than a third of the right-wing bloc in current polls, down from over half in the current Knesset.
This weakening of Netanyahu's position, particularly among the urban middle class in central Israel, is reportedly linked to the judicial overhaul initiated in early 2023. This demographic, which values stability and the rule of law, is reportedly alienated by the overhaul and the influence of figures associated with the "settler youth." The article notes that the rise of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir's influence, particularly after the October 7th attacks, has led them to dictate government policy, including opposition to hostage deals and continued military operations, while allowing Netanyahu to present these policies as his own. This dynamic is seen as beneficial for Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who can leverage Netanyahu's international standing while advancing their own agendas.
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