Israeli Intelligence Misinterpreted Sinwar's Message Due to Tzurkov Case

Israeli intelligence agencies initially interpreted a cryptic message from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, received in September 2023, as relating to the case of Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tzurkov, who had been abducted in Iraq. The message stated, "An earthquake is expected in the prisons due to the issue of prisoners." This prompted a special assessment session within the Israeli security establishment, including the Shin Bet, to decipher its meaning.

The intelligence community's focus on Tzurkov's case intensified when they detected new Iranian activity. A senior Iranian official reportedly approached Hamas, proposing the group handle negotiations for Tzurkov's release, a move seemingly agreed to by the Iran-aligned Iraqi militia holding her. This convergence of events led Israeli officials to believe Sinwar's message was directly linked to Tzurkov's potential release, with one participant describing the message as fitting the new intelligence picture "like a glove."

Following the October 7th attacks, it became apparent that Sinwar's message carried a different meaning. Later assessments suggest it was part of Sinwar's strategy to secure additional concessions from Israel while delaying the planned Hamas assault. The Tzurkov case and related developments significantly influenced the Israeli security apparatus's interpretation of Sinwar's message, providing a seemingly logical explanation that aligned with the available intelligence at the time.

Additionally, a senior security official commented on reports of a potential warning from UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prior to October 7th, suggesting such a warning, if confirmed, could have prompted deeper assessments. These revelations are part of ongoing investigations into the intelligence failures preceding the October 7th attacks and whether available signals were misinterpreted, leading to flawed assessments of Hamas's intentions.