Sinwar's 'Earthquake' Warning Before Oct. 7 Was Misinterpreted, Report Says

Weeks before the October 7th Hamas attacks, a secret message from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar warned of an "earthquake in the prisons due to the issue of prisoners." Israeli security and intelligence officials discussed the message but interpreted it as relating to negotiations for the release of Israeli-American researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who had been abducted in Iraq.

At the time, Israeli intelligence identified a new development in Tsurkov's case: a senior Iranian official had approached Hamas, suggesting the organization take responsibility for negotiating her release. An Iraqi pro-Iranian group holding Tsurkov also agreed to this arrangement. This confluence of events reinforced the belief among Israeli officials that Sinwar's message was connected to Tsurkov, not an impending attack.

Sources involved in the discussions stated that Sinwar's message "fit the new intelligence picture like a glove." A special assessment meeting was convened at the Shin Bet's request following the message, and no alternative interpretations were offered by those present.

In hindsight, the message was intended to allow Sinwar to extract further concessions from Israel and delay the planned attack. However, the intelligence picture surrounding Tsurkov provided a seemingly fitting explanation for the unusual warning at the time.

A senior security official also commented on a report that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed had conveyed a warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The official suggested that such a message, if received, might have prompted deeper actions by Israel. "We needed something to overcome the signs of calm we projected for ourselves. Perhaps that could have been the sign," the official stated. Netanyahu denies such a conversation took place. However, even before this potential warning, the security establishment already possessed Sinwar's message, which was then misinterpreted as being related to the Tsurkov negotiations.