Sinwar's Secret Message Before Oct. 7 Misinterpreted by Israel

Weeks before the October 7th Hamas attacks, Israel received a secret message from Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the massacre, stating that an "earthquake is expected in the prisons due to the issue of prisoners." At the time, Israeli intelligence was tracking developments concerning Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who had been abducted in Iraq. This led Israeli security and intelligence officials to interpret Sinwar's message as related to Tsurkov's case.

New details reveal that a senior Iranian official had proposed to Hamas that they take responsibility for negotiating Tsurkov's release, and the Iran-backed Iraqi militia holding her agreed. This confluence of events strongly suggested to Israeli officials that Sinwar's message was connected to the Tsurkov situation. Sources involved in the discussions stated the message "fit the new intelligence picture like a glove," and no alternative interpretation was considered.

During a special situation assessment requested by the Shin Bet, no official proposed a different reading of Sinwar's message. In hindsight, it is understood that Sinwar's message was a tactic to extract further concessions from Israel and delay the planned attack. However, the intelligence picture surrounding Tsurkov provided an explanation that seemed fitting to the authorities at the time.

A senior security official commented on reports that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed had warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about an impending attack. The official stated that if such a message had indeed reached the Prime Minister directly from bin Zayed, it might have prompted a deeper investigation. "It would have been the straw that broke the camel's back," he said, suggesting it could have overridden the perceived signs of calm that Israel had focused on. Netanyahu has denied such a conversation took place. The Sinwar message, which should have raised alarms, was ultimately misinterpreted.