Sinwar's Secret Message Hinted at 'Earthquake' Before Oct. 7 Attack

Weeks before the October 7th Hamas attacks, a secret message from Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, reached Israel, warning of an impending "earthquake" concerning prisoners and hostages. This message was circulated within a small circle and prompted discussions within the security establishment. Around the same time, Israeli intelligence identified developments regarding Elizabeth Tsurkov, who was held in Iraq. An Iranian source reportedly suggested Hamas involvement in negotiations for her release, which the group holding her accepted. This information was linked to Sinwar's message, leading Israeli officials to believe he intended to leverage the Tsurkov situation to demand the release of prisoners in exchange for her. This assessment was a primary hypothesis in Israel even when the story first emerged in 2024.

Following the attacks, alternative theories emerged regarding Sinwar's motive for sending the message, including attempts to gain concessions or delay the attack. However, even after the war, no definitive proof has emerged to clarify his exact intentions. Adding to the context, a report in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz claimed that UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shortly before October 7th about a major operation planned by Sinwar. Netanyahu's office has denied that such a conversation and warning took place.

The overall picture suggests that an unusual message did reach Israel prior to October 7th. However, at the time, it was interpreted in conjunction with other intelligence, and therefore not understood as a warning of a large-scale assault.