Sinwar's Secret Message Before Oct. 7 Misinterpreted by Israel

Weeks before the October 7th Hamas attacks, Israel received a secret message from Yahya Sinwar, stating "an earthquake is expected in the prisons due to the issue of prisoners." At the time, Israeli intelligence was tracking developments concerning Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who had been abducted in Iraq. A senior Iranian official had suggested Hamas take responsibility for negotiating Tsurkov's release, and the pro-Iranian Iraqi militia holding her agreed. This convergence of information led Israeli security and intelligence officials to interpret Sinwar's message as related to the Tsurkov situation. Officials involved in the assessment stated the message "fit the new intelligence picture like a glove," and no alternative interpretation was considered. A senior security official commented that if a subsequent warning from UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to Prime Minister Netanyahu, as reported by Haaretz, did indeed arrive, it might have prompted a deeper examination of the intelligence. However, Netanyahu denies such a conversation took place. In hindsight, Sinwar's message is understood as an attempt to gain concessions from Israel and delay the planned attack, but the intelligence surrounding Tsurkov provided a seemingly fitting explanation at the time, preventing a more critical assessment.