Intelligence: Sinwar's Pre-Oct. 7 Message Aimed to Deceive Israel

Israeli intelligence officials have revealed that a message conveyed by Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in September 2023, through intermediaries linked to Mohammed Dahlan, was not considered high-quality or actionable intelligence. Instead, sources described it as a "smokescreen" intended to lull Israel into a false sense of security while Hamas finalized plans for the October 7th attack.

The information was reportedly passed from Sinwar to Fatah official Soufian Abu Zaida, a Dahlan associate, and subsequently to Dahlan himself and Israel's Shin Bet security agency. Abu Zaida maintained contact with Hamas official Ghazi Hamad, and a channel between Dahlan's associates and the Shin Bet reportedly still exists.

Despite the intelligence reaching Israeli agencies, a senior intelligence official stated that the information's quality was significantly lower than intelligence typically gathered by Israel. This lack of quality, they explained, prevented the system from initiating special preparations or a preemptive strike, drawing a comparison to the intelligence failures before the Yom Kippur War.

Sources suggest Sinwar's motive for sending the message was to create a facade of willingness for de-escalation. This was allegedly coordinated with his deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, who was simultaneously finalizing the date for the October 7th massacre with Iran. This deception was part of a broader, systematic effort by Hamas over two years prior to the war, which included engaging journalists and former officials to promote a narrative of rebuilding Gaza and encouraging mediation efforts on hostages, all designed to mask their preparations for the attack.