Hamas Leader Sinwar Warned of Gaza Escalation Before Oct. 7, Sources Say

Sources close to Palestinian official Mohammed Dahlan have revealed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar provided information in September 2023 indicating a potential escalation in the Gaza Strip. This intelligence was reportedly passed to Dahlan via Sofian Abu Zayda, known as "Coal Eyes," who is a close associate of Dahlan and was involved in a Haaretz newspaper investigation. Abu Zayda subsequently relayed the information, which he also received from Hamas, to an Israeli Shin Bet official identified only as "G," who handled Palestinian affairs.

According to a senior Israeli intelligence official, the information was not deemed actionable or critical enough to warrant a significant response from Israel. The official described the intelligence as "pink" rather than "bright red," suggesting it did not trigger a high-level alert or change Israel's strategic assessment at the time. The intelligence was not considered "operational" or "warning" quality.

Baruch Yedid, an Arab affairs analyst for the Hebrew Channel, reported that the intelligence community's relationship with Dahlan is not new. Abu Zayda maintained ongoing contact with Hamas official Ghazi Hamad, with whom Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly held secret talks after Operation Protective Edge. Abu Zayda also communicated with "G," a senior Shin Bet official involved in civilian matters. These intelligence connections with Dahlan reportedly continue to this day.

The prevailing assessment is that Sinwar's actions were an attempt to create a false impression in Israel that he was pursuing a settlement. By communicating through intermediaries like Abu Zayda, Sinwar may have sought to portray an ongoing dialogue. The intelligence was not acted upon because many assumed it was another effort by Sinwar to signal engagement. Yedid concluded that Sinwar and his associates had contacted former senior intelligence officials and journalists long before the war, attempting to convince them of his focus on establishing a civil rescue front for Gaza. He downplayed the significance of this specific warning, given the prevailing assumptions about Sinwar's intentions.