Sinwar Warned of Gaza Escalation Before Oct. 7, Associates of Dahlan Claim

Associates of Mohammed Dahlan have told i24NEWS that Yahya Sinwar, Hamas's leader in Gaza, conveyed information in September 2023 suggesting a potential escalation in the Strip weeks before the October 7th attack. This intelligence was reportedly passed to Soufian Abou Zaida, an associate of Dahlan, who then shared it with a Shin Bet official. These revelations emerge a day after Haaretz reported that the UAE had warned Benjamin Netanyahu of an impending attack days before October 7th. Dahlan's circle is now presenting its account of the information circulating at the time.

However, a senior Israeli intelligence official downplayed the significance of these claims, stating the information was neither operational nor precise enough to constitute a genuine alert. The official described the intelligence as "not bright red, perhaps pink," indicating it was not deemed significant enough to alter the prevailing assessment that Hamas was not planning a major assault. The official suggested the intelligence was perceived as part of Sinwar's strategy to project an image of seeking de-escalation and civilian initiatives for Gaza.

Contacts between Dahlan's associates and Hamas officials were not new. Abou Zaida reportedly maintained regular communication with Hamas official Ghazi Hamad and a Shin Bet representative. These channels are said to remain active. The prevailing analysis at the time was that Sinwar was attempting to reassure Israel of his commitment to de-escalation, using information about a potential escalation as part of a broader communication strategy to portray Hamas as interested in avoiding conflict.