Hamas Leader Sinwar Planned Large-Scale October 2023 Attack, Anticipated Israeli Nuclear Response

In October 2025, the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center published captured Hamas documents found in Gaza handwritten by Yahya Sinwar, head of Hamas's political bureau in Gaza. The documents, dated August 24, 2022, outlined detailed instructions for launching a decisive campaign against Israel, including deception tactics in the weeks before the attack, the breach into Israeli territory, and orders to document atrocities against civilians and soldiers, as seen in the October 7, 2023 assault.

One document detailed the invasion plan, demanding rapid control of 25 junctions and over 220 settlements, including kibbutzim and cities of various sizes, as well as military facilities. Sinwar estimated the need for 10,000 well-trained fighters to execute the operation. He believed the attack would surprise Israel but acknowledged readiness for any Israeli retaliation, including the use of a nuclear bomb, emphasizing the campaign was a "life-or-death" struggle.

Sinwar described the force deployment for the invasion phase, aiming to breach Israeli defenses at 25 points simultaneously, each targeted by separate units of 100 fighters, totaling 2,500 fighters to seize key southern junctions. His plan included expelling settlers with their vehicles, prioritizing the evacuation of women and children, and taking men aged 17 to 50 hostage, along with confiscating phones and documents. Hamas militants followed these directives during the October 7 attack, kidnapping women and children and killing many civilians.

On the morning of October 7, 3,100 Hamas militants infiltrated Israel in three waves, joined by 580 Islamic Jihad fighters. Originally, Sinwar planned to deploy at least three times more militants: 2,210 for 221 kibbutzim and small settlements, 1,600 for eight larger settlements, 2,000 for military bases, plus 2,500 for junction control, totaling 10,000 fighters. This comprehensive plan reveals the scale and coordination behind the October 2023 attack and Sinwar's anticipation of extreme Israeli countermeasures.