Sinwar's Secret Message Misinterpreted Before Oct. 7 Attack

Weeks before the October 7th Hamas attack, a secret message from Gaza's Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar warned of an "earthquake in the prisons due to the prisoner issue." Israeli security and intelligence agencies attempted to decipher the message but misinterpreted its meaning, believing it related to the case of Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who was held in Iraq.

An Iranian official had approached Hamas, proposing the organization handle negotiations for Tsurkov's release, a move accepted by the Iraqi group holding her. This coincidence led Israeli intelligence to believe Sinwar's warning was connected to this development, fitting neatly into their intelligence picture at the time. Special situation assessments conducted at the Shin Bet's request did not explore alternative interpretations.

The message, reportedly sent in September 2023 via Fatah official Soufian Abu Zaida, a confidant of Mohammed Dahlan, was also relayed to Dahlan and the Shin Bet. Abu Zaida maintains ties with Hamas official Ghazi Hamad, a channel allegedly established on Prime Minister Netanyahu's orders after the 2014 Gaza war.

In hindsight, Sinwar's message was a ploy to deceive Israel, demand further concessions, and mask preparations for the attack. The Tsurkov affair provided a convenient explanation that fostered a false sense of security. Intelligence officials noted the information from Dahlan's associates was not high quality, suggesting Sinwar aimed to create a smokescreen while his deputy finalized the attack date with Iran.

An Israeli security official commented that a warning from UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to the Prime Minister, if it occurred, might have been the "last straw" prompting deeper investigation, potentially overriding the calming signals Israel had perceived. Prime Minister Netanyahu denies any such conversation took place. Abu Zaida, however, posted a video identifying himself as the source of Sinwar's warning, promising to reveal details of his mediation efforts for a deal involving prisoner exchanges, lifting the Gaza blockade, and improving living conditions in the Strip.

According to an investigation by Haaretz, negotiations stalled in early September 2023, prompting Sinwar's explicit warning. Despite the intelligence failures, contact between Israeli intelligence and Dahlan's office continues, raising questions about intelligence interpretation and the tendency to fit information into existing frameworks rather than seeking alternative explanations.