Sinwar's Prison Uprising Warning Misinterpreted Before Oct. 7

Weeks before the October 7th Hamas attack, a message from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar reached Israel stating, "An earthquake is expected in the prisons due to the issue of prisoners." This message sparked discussion within the Israeli security establishment. However, the interpretation at the time focused on the case of Israeli-American researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who had been abducted and held in Iraq, rather than on the possibility of an imminent attack.

New details revealed by Channel 12 on Tuesday shed light on how security and intelligence officials connected Sinwar's message to Tsurkov's situation. Concurrently with receiving Sinwar's message, intelligence indicated that a senior Iranian official had approached Hamas, proposing that the organization take responsibility for negotiations regarding Tsurkov's release. The Iraqi pro-Iranian group holding her agreed to this arrangement. Intelligence officials viewed these two developments as interconnected, with one participant stating that Sinwar's message "fit the new intelligence picture like a glove."

A special assessment meeting was convened at the request of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) following Sinwar's message. According to the report, no one present offered an alternative interpretation. In hindsight, it is now understood that Sinwar's message had a different meaning. The report suggests it was Sinwar's attempt to extract further concessions from Israel and delay his planned attack.

A senior security official also commented on a report by the newspaper Haaretz, which stated that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed had conveyed a warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The official noted that if such a message had indeed reached Netanyahu directly from bin Zayed, it might have been the "straw that broke the camel's back," prompting deeper actions. He suggested that such a warning could have been the sign needed to overcome the "calming signals" Israel had perceived for itself.