Sinwar's Pre-Oct. 7 Warning to Israel Was Misinterpreted, Report Says

Weeks before the October 7 Hamas attacks, Yahya Sinwar sent an "enigmatic" message to Israel stating that "an earthquake was to be expected in the prisons due to the issue of prisoners," according to Channel 12. This unusual communication sparked discussions within Israeli security services.

At the time, Israeli intelligence had learned that a senior Iranian official had offered Hamas participation in negotiations for the release of Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli-Russian researcher abducted in Iraq. Consequently, officials interpreted Sinwar's message as relating to this specific situation. A source involved in the discussions stated that this interpretation "perfectly" aligned with the available information, and no alternative readings were proposed during a special assessment requested by the Shin Bet.

However, Channel 12 reports that Sinwar's message was actually an attempt to extract further concessions from Israel on the prisoner issue while buying time before the planned attack. Separately, a senior security official mentioned an unconfirmed report that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed had issued a warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prior to October 7. Netanyahu denies any such conversation took place.