Sinwar's 'Prison Earthquake' Warning Was a Deception, Intelligence Missed True Threat
Weeks before the October 7th Hamas attack, a secret message from Gaza's Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar warned of an "earthquake in the prisons" due to the issue of prisoners. Israeli security and intelligence agencies interpreted this message in a way that differed from its true meaning, missing the real threat.
At the same time, Israeli intelligence was tracking the kidnapping of Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov in Iraq. A senior Iranian official proposed that Hamas mediate Tsurkov's release, a move agreed to by the pro-Iranian Iraqi group holding her. This development coincided with Sinwar's warning, leading intelligence to believe the message was related to the Tsurkov affair and fitting neatly into their intelligence picture.
The message was reportedly conveyed in September 2023 from Sinwar to Fatah official Sufian Abu Zaida, a confidant of Mohammed Dahlan, and subsequently to Dahlan and Israel's Shin Bet security agency. Abu Zaida had been in contact with Hamas official Ghazi Hamad, reportedly through a channel established by Prime Minister Netanyahu after the 2014 Gaza war.
In hindsight, Sinwar's message was a ploy to deceive Israel, demand further concessions, and mask preparations for the attack. The Tsurkov case provided a convenient explanation that fostered a false sense of security. Intelligence officials noted that information from Dahlan's associates was not high quality, suggesting Sinwar aimed to create a smokescreen while his deputy finalized the attack date with Iran.
An Israeli security official commented that a potential warning from UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to Prime Minister Netanyahu could have been the "last straw" prompting deeper investigation, but Netanyahu's office denies such a conversation occurred. Abu Zaida later posted a video identifying himself as the source of Sinwar's warning, promising to reveal details of his mediation efforts for a hostage deal involving prisoner releases, Gaza's blockade, and infrastructure improvements.
Despite the intelligence failures, contact with Dahlan's office reportedly continues, raising questions about intelligence interpretation and the tendency to fit information into existing narratives rather than exploring alternative possibilities.
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