Hamas Leader Sinwar Transmitted Low-Quality Intelligence to Israel via Palestinian Mediator

Sources in Israel and close to Palestinian official Mohammed Dahlan have shed light on a network of relationships and the content of messages passed from Hamas to Dahlan, and subsequently to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to the newspaper Haaretz. While the specifics of any messages between Dahlan and bin Zayed remain unconfirmed, it is established that in September 2023, Yahya Sinwar, a Hamas leader, transmitted "intelligence" information to Sufian Abu Zaydeh, a Fatah leader close to Dahlan. This information was relayed to Dahlan and shortly thereafter reached Israel's Shin Bet security agency.

A senior Israeli intelligence official described the intelligence received as "not precautionary, not of quality, and not operational," deeming it inferior to information gathered by Israel and insufficient to prompt action. The article notes that the Hamas-Dahlan-Shin Bet nexus is not new, with Abu Zaydeh having long-standing ties to Hamas leader Ghazi Hamad, with whom Netanyahu reportedly authorized a communication channel after the 2014 Gaza conflict. Abu Zaydeh also maintains a relationship with Shin Bet official Adi Rotem, who previously held a senior position in prisoner affairs.

The central question posed is why Sinwar would transmit intelligence to Israel, knowing it would reach them. The answer suggested is that Sinwar was engaged in a prolonged deception campaign preceding the October 7th attacks, aiming to create a false impression of readiness for dialogue with Israel. This included sending a Hamas official to Beirut to meet with Iranian figures to agree on an attack date.

Sinwar's actions are framed as part of a broader pattern of deception. In the two years before the war, Hamas reportedly approached journalists and former officials to "numb" Israel, portraying Sinwar as seeking to establish a "civil rescue administration" for Gaza. Simultaneously, Hamas sought to open mediation channels for prisoners and missing persons as a smokescreen for attack preparations. An Israeli intelligence official sarcastically remarked that the information received was not critical, unlike past intelligence, and that a "misconception" led to Israel being caught unprepared.