Poll Shows MK Tali Gottlieb's Potential Move Could Shift Knesset Balance

A new poll released Wednesday by Walla! News indicates that if MK Tali Gottlieb were to join the Otzma Yehudit party, it would rise to eight Knesset seats. This gain would primarily come at the expense of the Likud party, which would drop to 21 seats, and the joint list of Religious Zionism and Identity, falling to four seats. Despite these shifts, the overall bloc balance remains largely unchanged. Netanyahu's coalition would stand at 48 seats, the Zionist opposition at 59, and Arab parties at 13.

The poll also examined the impact of the union between Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party and Moshe Feiglin's Identity party. This unified list garnered 4.1% support, translating to five seats. Concurrently, the "Am Israel" party, led by Ofer Winter, fell below the electoral threshold with only 2.3% support.

In a scenario where Gottlieb joins Otzma Yehudit, the bloc balance sees minimal change, with Netanyahu's coalition at 49 seats, the Zionist opposition at 58, and Arab parties at 13. The merger of Hadash-Ta'al with Ra'am resulted in the joint list securing eight seats.

Furthermore, the survey revealed that in both tested scenarios, parties failing to pass the electoral threshold collectively garnered about 10% of the votes, equivalent to approximately 12 Knesset seats that are not represented in the final seat distribution. Prior to Gottlieb's potential move, the seat distribution was: Yesh Atid 24, Likud 22, Yachad 15, Democrats 10, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am) 8, United Torah Judaism 8, Otzma Yehudit 7, Shas 7, Ra'am 5, and the Smotrich-Feiglin list 5.