Israeli Election Stalemate: Multiple Scenarios Emerge for Government Formation

With official results for Israel's 26th Knesset elections pending, the outcome indicates no clear majority for either the Netanyahu bloc or the 'change' bloc, making stable government formation challenging without compromises on electoral promises. The 'change' bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, remains significantly short of the 61 seats needed to form a government, even without factoring in the 19 seats won by Arab parties, who achieved a record number of mandates. The possibility of avoiding new elections hinges on politicians from both sides retracting campaign pledges. The "Walla!" news site outlined several potential scenarios for government formation, diverging from pre-election polls.

A national unity government led by Netanyahu is considered the most likely scenario, though it would require significant backtracking on promises. Netanyahu might break his pledge to form a coalition solely with current allies, while Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Avigdor Lieberman would have to renege on their commitment not to ally with Netanyahu. President Isaac Herzog has openly advocated for such a unity government to prevent further political instability, and former US President Donald Trump's potential involvement is also mentioned as a possibility to advance initiatives like the Abraham Accords.

Another possibility is a national unity government with a rotating premiership, with Netanyahu serving first. This is deemed less likely given Netanyahu's dual victories as leader of the largest party and bloc, but not impossible. This scenario would still see 'change' bloc leaders breaking their vows not to sit in a government led by Netanyahu, with some arguing he is unfit for any role post-October 7th.

A government led by Netanyahu with defectors from the 'change' bloc is also a potential outcome, where those joining would be breaking their campaign pledges. Most 'change' bloc leaders and parties vowed not to sit with Netanyahu or even cooperate with Haredi parties traditionally allied with him.

A temporary minority or transitional government led by Eisenkot is another scenario. This would involve 'change' bloc leaders breaking their promises, with Yair Golan being an exception due to his stated willingness to cooperate with Arab parties. While Eisenkot has not ruled out such a move, he faces opposition from Bennett and Lieberman, and elements within the Yachad, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Meretz parties also reject it. Arab parties have not dismissed the possibility, stating they would help oust Netanyahu, who has accused them of stealing the election.

If no compromises are made, Israel could face another round of elections within months. The election results surprised many, with the Likud party remaining the largest despite a slight decline. Another election might primarily benefit Netanyahu, potentially impacting voter turnout in left-wing and centrist strongholds and among Arab voters who turned out in large numbers.