Israeli Election Stalemate Requires Broken Promises for Government Formation

Following the near-final results of the 2026 Israeli elections, it is clear that no single bloc has secured a stable majority, necessitating that some political actors break campaign promises to form a government. The "change bloc," led by Gadi Eisenkot, is far from forming a government to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even without considering the Arab parties which achieved a record 19 mandates. Despite a slight advantage for Netanyahu's bloc, a way out of repeated elections exists, but it hinges on politicians from both sides reneging on their pledges.

A "unity government" under Netanyahu is presented as a highly probable scenario, though it would require the most promise-breaking. Netanyahu might violate his pledge for a coalition with all current partners, while Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Avigdor Lieberman could break their vow not to sit with Netanyahu, who emerged as the largest party by a significant margin. President Yitzhak Herzog has reportedly favored this outcome and stated that "everything must be done" to avoid further elections, hinting at efforts to push for a unity government. US President Donald Trump might also intervene to facilitate this scenario, potentially aiding his diplomatic goals like expanding the Abraham Accords.

Another possibility is a unity government with a rotation, though Netanyahu's electoral success makes his agreement to such an arrangement uncertain. If it occurs, leaders of the change bloc would violate their commitment not to serve under Netanyahu, with some having stated he is unfit to serve even as a minister following the October 7th failures.

A government led by Netanyahu with defectors from the change bloc is also conceivable. This would involve members of the change bloc breaking their promise not to sit under Netanyahu, and potentially cooperating with Haredi parties, traditional allies of Netanyahu. Reports suggest the Likud party had formed a special team to encourage MKs, particularly from the "Yashar!" party, to switch allegiance.

A temporary minority government or transitional government headed by Eisenkot could also emerge. This would require most change bloc leaders, except for Yair Golan, to break their commitment to not sit with Arab parties, some of whom have indicated willingness to help oust Netanyahu. This scenario could involve the change bloc and Arab parties taking control of the Knesset, potentially replacing the Speaker and advancing an inquiry into the October 7th massacre, possibly leading to the Knesset's dissolution and new elections.

If no promises are broken, the most likely outcome is a return to the polls, a scenario that seemed probable before October 7th. This could disproportionately benefit Netanyahu, as despair within the change bloc might lower turnout in its strongholds, potentially affecting Arab voter turnout as well, despite their record participation.