Israel's Political Stalemate: Government Formation or New Elections?

Following the conclusion of the 26th Knesset elections, Israel faces a political deadlock as no bloc has secured the necessary 61 seats for a clear majority. The country now enters a period of coalition negotiations, with the process of forming a new government potentially lasting months. Benjamin Netanyahu will continue to serve as caretaker Prime Minister during this time.

The official election results are due by November 4, to be submitted to President Yitzhak Herzog by the Chairman of the Election Committee, Judge Noam Sohlberg. While the final seat distribution might shift slightly due to the counting of double envelopes, coalition talks can commence immediately. The 26th Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10, irrespective of government formation.

President Herzog is expected to task a Knesset member with forming a government by November 11, following consultations with the factions. The mandate is not automatically given to the largest party's leader, nor does it require an initial endorsement of 61 lawmakers. The President's primary consideration will be identifying the candidate with the best chance of assembling a coalition. Reports suggest Herzog aims to prevent further elections by facilitating a broad and stable government, with the President's office stating they will act within their legal discretion.

The process allows the designated candidate 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension, meaning a mandate granted on November 11 could extend to December 23. If the first candidate fails, the President can assign the task to another MK for a non-extendable 28-day period. Should this also fail, a 21-day window opens for 61 MKs to propose a consensus candidate, who would then have 14 additional days. If all attempts are exhausted, the Knesset would dissolve, triggering new elections within 90 days, potentially around May 2027.

Political declarations complicate coalition building. Netanyahu has called for a right-wing government, ruling out reliance on Arab parties. Before the elections, Izankot stated Netanyahu could not serve as Prime Minister or minister, while Lapid and Golan also rejected a unity government with him. These stances present challenges, though negotiations are ongoing. The first test for the new Knesset may be the election of its Speaker, which will reveal the initial balance of power between the blocs. Historically, both outcomes are possible: coalition failures led to repeat elections in 2019, while a rotation government was formed in 2021 after Netanyahu's failure to form one.