Israeli Election Analysis: Netanyahu Coalition Faces Potential Defeat Amidst Shifting Alliances
Translated & summarized from Calcalist by baba
An analysis suggests Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition may lose the upcoming Israeli elections, but the "change bloc" faces uncertainty due to factors like voter turnout and parties failing to pass the electoral threshold. Several smaller parties, including Noam and "Am Israel," could significantly impact the seat distribution. The outcome depends heavily on the "change bloc's" ability to form a government and avoid a repeat election, which could benefit Netanyahu.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Netanyahu's coalition faces potential defeat in upcoming Israeli elections, according to analysis.
- The "change bloc's" final seat count depends on voter turnout and parties passing the threshold.
- Several smaller parties, including Noam and "Am Israel," could significantly impact seat distribution.
- Arab parties are expected to gain 14-16 seats with high turnout aiming to oust the government.
- The "change bloc's" ability to form a government is crucial to avoid a detrimental repeat election.
A series of analyses by "Behind the Curtain" in collaboration with the Israel Democracy Institute suggests Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition is poised to lose the upcoming elections. However, the "change bloc" is not guaranteed victory, as its final seat count depends on factors like parties failing to pass the electoral threshold and voter turnout among traditional supporters.
The current coalition shows signs of fragmentation. Unlike the 2022 elections where Netanyahu successfully prevented "vote waste" by smaller parties, this time the "change bloc" and the Arab bloc are expected to squander mandates. Avi Maoz's Noam party may cost the bloc a seat, while Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party could either pass the threshold and owe Netanyahu nothing, or cost his bloc four seats. Among the Haredi parties, Moti Leitner's "Hacharedi Public" party might surprise by costing the established Haredi parties one to two seats, and a party supporting draft evasion could also take half a seat.
If "Am Israel" and a party of reservists fail to pass the threshold, the "change bloc" could approach 60 seats. The inclusion of MKs Handel and Zelicha might reduce the "change bloc's" count by two seats, but they could still reach 60 mandates together. Voter turnout among the Haredi and traditional communities, who largely support coalition parties, is another critical factor. Parties like Shas are expected to suffer due to anger over draft evasion legislation, while the Likud and Otzma Yehudit face similar challenges from recent failures and support for draft evasion.
Recent polls indicate Arab parties could secure 14 to 16 seats, with an expected turnout near 70% aiming to oust the current government, particularly Minister Ben-Gvir. However, each Arab mandate, while hurting the coalition, also complicates efforts by the "change bloc" leader Izankot to form a government. An influx of relatively liberal voters from Russia and Ukraine could also bolster the "change bloc."
The analysis concludes that while a significant loss for Netanyahu's bloc is possible, its ultimate impact hinges on the "change bloc's" ability to form an alternative government and avoid another election round. A repeat election would likely benefit Netanyahu's bloc, while harming the "change bloc" and the country.
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