Israeli Poll Shows Netanyahu Bloc Shrinking Ahead of Elections
Translated & summarized from Al-Shams by baba
A final pre-election poll in Israel shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc falling to 50 seats, while the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot is projected to win 52 seats. Naftali Bennett's party gained seats, and he is now tied with Netanyahu in suitability for prime minister. The poll also indicates public concern over the security situation and explores potential government formation scenarios, with divided opinions on unity governments, new elections, or minority governments.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Netanyahu's coalition bloc is projected to win 50 seats, while the opposition bloc is expected to secure 52 seats.
- Naftali Bennett's party gained two seats, reaching 14 seats in the latest poll.
- Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett are tied at 38% in suitability for prime minister.
- Gadi Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in suitability for prime minister with 44% support.
- 58% of respondents view Israel's security situation as not good.
- Public opinion is divided on forming a unity government, new elections, or a minority government.
A final opinion poll released by Israel's Kan 11 public broadcaster on Friday evening indicates a decline for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition bloc, projecting them to win 50 seats in the upcoming elections. The opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to secure 52 seats. Naftali Bennett's "Yamina" party saw a boost, gaining two seats to reach 14.
Netanyahu's Likud party is predicted to fall to 20 seats, while the "Yesh Atid" party is projected to win 22 seats, with both parties losing one seat compared to the previous poll. The Democratic Union is forecast to drop to eight seats from nine, while the Joint List and United Torah Judaism are expected to gain seats, reaching nine and eight respectively. Shas is predicted to win seven seats, the same as the Religious Zionism and Hatikva parties. Oztma Yehudit and Yisrael Beiteinu are each projected to get eight seats, while "Reserve Soldiers" and the Economic Party are expected to win four seats each. The United Arab List is projected to secure five seats.
The poll also revealed that Ofer Winter's "Israel Our Home" party, along with two other lists, remains below the electoral threshold needed to enter the Knesset. In a significant development, Bennett and Netanyahu are now tied for the first time since August in terms of suitability for the premiership, with each receiving 38% support. Previously, Netanyahu led Bennett 38% to 34%.
Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in suitability for prime minister, with 44% favoring Eisenkot compared to 38% for Netanyahu. However, when compared directly, 35% prefer Eisenkot over Bennett's 22%, with 43% finding neither suitable for the role. Opposition voters appear more decisive about participating in the elections, with 80% confident of voting compared to 75% among coalition voters. Despite this, 36% of all respondents remain undecided about their vote, an increase from 30% in the prior poll.
Regarding the security situation, 58% of respondents believe it is not good, while 37% consider it good. Among opposition voters, this figure rises to 73% believing the security situation is poor, contrasting with 28% of coalition voters. The poll also explored scenarios for forming the next government, with 27% favoring a unity government and an equal percentage supporting new elections. Another 26% support a minority government from the "change bloc" with Arab parties abstaining from voting against it. Among coalition voters, 47% support new elections, while 45% of opposition voters favor a minority government.
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