Israeli Election Polls Show Divergent Forecasts for Netanyahu's Bloc
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
Two Israeli election polls released Wednesday show conflicting results for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc ahead of the upcoming Knesset elections. One poll by Channel 13 predicts 49 seats for the governing coalition and 52 for the opposition, while Channel 14 forecasts 62 seats for Netanyahu's bloc and 44 for the opposition. Projections for Arab parties vary slightly between 14 and 15 seats. The polls also differ significantly on the strength of individual parties, particularly Likud, and the performance of smaller lists near the electoral threshold.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Two Israeli election polls released Wednesday show divergent seat projections for Prime Minister Netanyahu's bloc.
- Channel 13 poll predicts 49 seats for the governing coalition versus 52 for the opposition.
- Channel 14 poll forecasts 62 seats for Netanyahu's bloc against 44 for the opposition.
- Arab parties are projected to win between 14 and 15 seats across both polls.
- Polls differ significantly on the projected strength of individual parties, especially Likud.
- One poll highlights pressure on Ofer Winter's party to withdraw to prevent vote loss.
Two Israeli election polls released Wednesday evening presented significantly different projections for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc ahead of next Tuesday's Knesset elections. One poll predicted 49 seats for his camp, while the other projected 62 seats. Forecasts for Arab parties ranged between 14 and 15 seats across both surveys.
A Channel 13 poll indicated that parties in the current governing coalition would secure 49 seats, compared to 52 for opposition parties. It also projected 15 seats for two Arab lists and four seats for the list led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zehliha. Within this poll, Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party led with 20 seats, followed by Netanyahu's Likud with 19. Naftali Bennett's "Bayad" party was projected to get 14 seats, and "HaDemocratim" 10. The Joint List was predicted to win 9 seats, and the United List 6, bringing the total for Arab parties to 15. Bezalel Smotrich's "Religious Zionism," "Yahadut HaTorah," and Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" were each expected to get eight seats. "Otzma Yehudit" led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and the "Shas" party were each projected to win 7 seats, with the Hendel-Zehliha list receiving four.
The Channel 13 poll also showed Ofer Winter's "Amcha Yisrael" party receiving 3.2% of the vote, just below the 3.25% electoral threshold, while "HaGush HaHaredi" received 1.2%. Winter's result is significant due to pressure from Netanyahu and Smotrich for him to withdraw from the election to prevent right-wing votes from being lost.
Conversely, a Channel 14 poll suggested Netanyahu's bloc would win 62 seats, against 44 for opposition parties, and 14 seats for the two Arab lists. This poll placed Likud first with 30 seats, followed by Eisenkot's "Yashar" with 20. "Bayad" and "Shas" were each projected to get 10 seats, "HaDemocratim" 9, the Joint List 8, and "Otzma Yehudit" also 8. "Yahadut HaTorah" and "Religious Zionism" were each expected to win 7 seats, the United List 6, and "Yisrael Beiteinu" 5.
The Channel 14 poll's projection for Arab parties was 14 seats, one less than Channel 13's, and the difference in the Likud's projected strength between the two polls was ten seats. Lists failing to pass the threshold in this poll included Hendel-Zehliha (2.2%), Winter's "Amcha Yisrael" (1.7%), "Noam" (0.6%), "HaTikva" (0.3%), and "Ahi" (0.2%).
Mentioned
