Two Polls Show Divergent Knesset Race Scenarios Ahead of Election
Translated & summarized from Cursorinfo by baba
Two polls released a week before Israeli elections show conflicting results regarding party standings and potential bloc majorities. One poll by Lazar Research Institute suggests a widening gap for "Yashar" over "Likud" and a weakened right-wing bloc. A contrasting poll by Direct Polls for Channel 14 shows "Likud" leading significantly and a strong right-wing majority. Both polls indicate Benny Gantz's departure has shifted voter allegiances, impacting various parties.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Two Israeli election polls offer divergent predictions on party strength and bloc control.
- One poll shows "Yashar" gaining on "Likud," while another has "Likud" leading significantly.
- Benny Gantz's withdrawal from the election race has influenced voter distribution.
- Polls project varying outcomes for the right-wing bloc's ability to form a majority.
- Benjamin Netanyahu leads Gadi Eisenkot in direct head-to-head prime ministerial polling.
A week before the Knesset elections, two distinct polls present contrasting political landscapes, particularly following Benny Gantz's withdrawal from the race. The Lazar Research Institute poll, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar and published by Walla, indicates a widening gap between Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party and Benjamin Netanyahu's "Likud." The "Yashar" party gained one seat to reach 23, while "Likud" dropped to 19 seats, a four-seat difference. Naftali Bennett's "Beiteinu" party rose to 14 seats, securing third place, with both Eisenkot and Bennett seeing gains after Gantz's departure. Yair Golan's "HaDemocratim" lost a seat, falling to 9, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu secured 8 seats.
In the religious and right-wing segments, Arie Deri's Shas gained a seat to 8, United Torah Judaism fell to 7, Itamar Ben-Gvir's "Otzma Yehudit" held 8 seats, and the "Religious Zionism-Zeut" alliance received 6 seats. Among Arab parties, Mansour Abbas and Yoav Segalovitz's Ra'am increased to 6 seats, while the "Joint List" maintained 8. The "Reservists-Economy" list led by Handel is projected to pass the electoral threshold with 4 seats, whereas Winter's party garnered only 2.9% and will not enter parliament. This poll suggests Netanyahu's right-wing bloc would have 48 mandates and the opposition 54.
Conversely, a poll by Direct Polls and NEXT DATA for Channel 14 shows a different outcome. "Likud" leads with 30 seats, followed by "Yashar" with 20. The poll attributes Gantz's former voters to "Yesh Atid" (38%), "Likud" (12%), and "Yashar" (11%). According to this survey, "Yesh Atid," Shas, and "Democrats" each receive 9 seats. "Otzma Yehudit" gains 8 seats, "United Torah Judaism" retains 8, and "Religious Zionism-Zehut" gets 7 seats. Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu secures 6 seats. In the Arab sector, Ra'am grows to 6 seats, and the joint Arab parties' bloc gets 8 seats.
This second poll predicts the right-wing bloc will maintain a majority of 62 seats, with the opposition at 44 seats, and Arab parties collectively taking 14 seats. In a head-to-head comparison for prime minister, Netanyahu leads Eisenkot 56% to 44%, with Netanyahu also ahead in general popularity at 55% compared to Eisenkot's 31%, Bennett's 8%, and Lieberman's 6%.
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