Conflicting Polls Show Divergent Election Scenarios Ahead of Vote
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
Two Israeli polls released Wednesday show vastly different election outcomes less than two weeks before the vote. Channel 13's survey predicts coalition parties will win only 51 seats, with Likud at 18 seats. Conversely, Channel 14's poll projects a right-wing bloc of 62 seats and Likud at 29 seats. The polls also differ on which smaller parties will cross the electoral threshold and on public opinion regarding leadership suitability.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Two Israeli polls released Wednesday show drastically different predictions for the upcoming Knesset elections.
- Channel 13's poll forecasts coalition parties winning 51 seats, while Channel 14 predicts a right-wing bloc of 62 seats.
- The Likud party is projected to receive 18 seats in Channel 13's poll, but 29 seats in Channel 14's survey.
- Polls diverge on whether smaller parties like Am Israel and Tikva Hadasha will cross the electoral threshold.
- Benjamin Netanyahu leads Gadi Eisenkot in a head-to-head poll for prime minister, according to Channel 14.
- Public opinion is divided on forming a government with Arab party support, according to Channel 13.
Two opinion polls released Wednesday by Israel's Channel 13 and Channel 14 present starkly different predictions for the upcoming Knesset elections, less than two weeks away. Channel 13's poll suggests coalition parties will win only 51 seats, while Channel 14 forecasts a right-wing bloc of 62 seats.
The discrepancy is particularly notable in the Likud party's projected performance. Channel 13's survey shows the Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, securing just 18 seats, with Gadi Eisenkot's Yesh Atid party leading at 20 seats. In contrast, Channel 14's poll places the Likud at 29 seats, while Yesh Atid remains at 20.
Significant differences also appear in the projections for other parties. Naftali Bennett's Tikva Hadasha party is predicted to receive 12 seats by Channel 13 and 11 by Channel 14. Shas is projected to win 7 seats on Channel 13 and 10 on Channel 14, while United Torah Judaism is expected to get 8 seats in both polls. Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism-Identity party is forecast at 6 seats by Channel 13 and 7 by Channel 14. Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party is projected to receive 8 seats in both surveys. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party is predicted to gain 9 seats on Channel 13, but only 5 on Channel 14. The Joint List is expected to secure 9 seats in both polls.
Another major divergence concerns smaller parties' ability to cross the electoral threshold. Channel 13's poll indicates that Ofer Winter's Am Israel party, as well as the Reservists and Economic party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha, would each receive 4 seats. However, Channel 14's survey shows both these lists failing to pass the threshold, with Hendel and Zelicha's party at 3.1% and Winter's at 2.7% of the vote.
Regarding bloc strength, Channel 13's poll shows coalition parties with 51 seats against 69 for their opponents, including Arab parties. Channel 14's poll indicates the right-wing bloc with 62 seats, the left-wing bloc with 44, and Arab parties with 14.
Channel 14 also explored leadership suitability, with Netanyahu leading at 52%, followed by Eisenkot at 32%, Bennett at 11%, and Lieberman at 5%. In a head-to-head matchup, Netanyahu garnered 52% against Eisenkot's 48%. Channel 13's poll also asked about forming a government with Arab party support, with 43% opposing, 40% supporting, and 17% undecided. Among coalition voters, 60% supported forming a government with Haredi parties in exchange for draft exemptions, 21% opposed, and 19% were undecided. The Channel 14 poll surveyed 568 adults and was analyzed by Shlomo Filber, while the Channel 13 poll surveyed 1,018 respondents with a 3.1% margin of error.
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